标签： 上海花千坊爱上海

LI’s revenue nearly doubled in the first quarter： the target of 30,000 vehicles delivered in June was not considered for price reduction.

K figure 02015_0

　　first quarterReach new heights.

　　May 10, (Nasdaq:LI；; 02015.HK) released the financial report for the first quarter of 2023. The financial report shows that the revenue in the first quarter was 18.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 96.5%, a record high, slightly higher than the market estimate of 18.68 billion yuan;It was 934 million yuan, and the net loss in the first quarter of 2022 was 10.9 million yuan, up 252% from 265 million yuan in the fourth quarter of 2022.

　　LI’s outstanding financial performance in the first quarter was supported by the substantial increase in sales. In terms of delivery volume, in the first quarter of this year, LI delivered a total of 52,600 vehicles, up 65.8% year-on-year, achieving the best single-season delivery result.

　　For the second quarter of this year, LI gave delivery guidelines of up to 76,000 to 81,000 vehicles, up 164.9% to 182.4% year-on-year; It is estimated that the revenue will reach 24.22 billion yuan to 25.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 177.4%-196.1%.

　　Annual grossThe target is 20%, and the sales of management fee rate will be reduced to 9.8%.

　　JiumaoOn the whole, LI’s gross profit margin and automobile gross profit margin both decreased year-on-year and increased month-on-month. The gross profit margin was 20.4% in the first quarter, 22.6% in the same period last year and 20.2% in the fourth quarter of 2022. The gross profit margin of automobiles was 19.8%, compared with 22.4% in the same period last year and 20% in the fourth quarter of 2022.

　　Li Tie, CFO of LI, said that in the first quarter of this year, the sales in Li ONE led to a decrease in the gross profit margin of the whole vehicle in the quarter, and it is expected that all the sales in Li ONE will be completed in the first half of this year. At the same time, there is still room for improvement in the profit margin of the ideal L7 and Air models. However, considering other potential factors, we still maintain the goal of 20% gross profit margin for the whole year.

　　Between LI CEO Li Xiang and a few days agoSpeaking at the meeting, LI’s expenses have further become.The focus of attention.

　　Recently, Li Xiang announced: "LI brand market expense rate is 0.6%, including all public relations, activities, advertisements, auto shows, press conferences, car owners’ operations, etc. I have to approve the expenses of tens of thousands of yuan to avoid spending money indiscriminately." At the same time, he also mentioned that the market expense ratio of mainstream brands is 2%-3%, which is 4-5 times that of LI.

　　The ideal, which has always been called "picking factories", has been evaluated by many analysts as properly controlling the expense ratio. The financial report for the first quarter shows that in the first quarter of 2023, LI’s sales, general and management expenses were RMB 1.65 billion, up 36.8% year-on-year and 0.9% quarter-on-quarter, accounting for 9.8% of revenue, further decreasing compared with 2022. In 2022, LI’s sales, general and management expenses were 5.665 billion yuan, accounting for 12.5% of the total revenue. In contrast, Tucki andThis figure is over 20%.

　　LI’s R&D expenditure is also rising. In the first quarter, it invested a total of 1.85 billion yuan in R&D, up 34.8% year-on-year, and the R&D expenditure rate remained at around 10%, which was in line with LI’s previous expectations. Li Tie said that the R&D expenditure will remain the original annual plan, at around 10 billion to 12 billion yuan. Sales management expenses depend on the profit level and will be further optimized.

　　In June, it hit 30,000 vehicles, and in the fourth quarter, it pushed pure electric vehicles.

　　In response to sales expectations, Li Xiang said that he should strive to achieve the goal of delivering 30,000 vehicles in a single month in June this year.

　　If this goal is achieved, then LI and the car,The new car-making forces will further widen the gap. At present, other new car-making forces have not touched the threshold of monthly sales of 20,000 vehicles. In the past April, only Nezha’s car sales reached 11,000 vehicles, and the sales of other new car-making forces did not exceed 10,000 vehicles.

　　Judging from the ideal sales volume in the first four months of this year, it is not difficult to achieve this goal. The delivery data of LI from January to April this year is constantly rising, with 15,100 vehicles delivered in January, up 23.4% year-on-year; 16,600 vehicles were delivered in February, a year-on-year increase of 97.5%; 20,800 vehicles were delivered in March, an increase of 88.7% year-on-year; In April, the delivery volume exceeded 25,000 vehicles for the first time, reaching 25,700 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 516.3%.

　　Since this year,The price of raw material lithium carbonate has dropped sharply. Some analysts asked LI if there was any plan to reduce the price. Li Xiang replied, "At present, there is no consideration of reducing the price, because when we make detailed long-term planning and pricing, we have already set the price at the most competitive price in the corresponding price range according to the grade and size of each vehicle, and both upward and downward fluctuations will be problematic. This is the fundamental reason why we have been very cautious in pricing and insist on long-term consideration. "

　　Li Xiang also said that ideally, the market share is still the first important factor, and the core goal in the second quarter is more than 200,000 yuan.In the automobile market, the market share of 11% in the first quarter was raised to 13%.

　　In the face of LI’s record financial data, many people shouted "Ideal is crazy", but some analysts expressed concern about the pure electric vehicles in LI. LI’s achievements are inseparable from the extended-range power model, and it has the first-Mover advantage. However, in the pure electric track where car companies gather, the ideal will face more intense challenges, and it is not easy to stand out.

　　During the recent Shanghai Auto Show, LI officially released the "Double Energy Strategy", saying that it will exert all efforts in "intelligence" and "electric energy". By 2025, it will form a product layout of "one super flagship model+five extended-range electric vehicles+five high-voltage pure electric vehicles", which will face more than 200,000 markets and fully meet the needs of home users. At the same time, ideally, it is estimated that more than 3,000 charging stations will be built by 2025.

　　Recently, there are market rumors that LI pure electric vehicles will be postponed until next year. At the earnings conference call, Li Xiang revealed that the pure electric vehicles in LI will be released in the fourth quarter of this year. After the release, they will start the test drive in the store and gradually start the delivery, which will keep the same release and delivery rhythm as the L9, L8 and L7 models.

　　In order to support the development of multi-vehicles, LI is also continuously expanding its network layout. As of April 30, 2023, LI has 302 retail centers nationwide, covering 123 cities; There are 318 after-sales maintenance centers and authorized car body panel spraying centers, covering 222 cities.

Gemini Man’s China press conference Ang Lee builds the most expensive actor.

On October 14th, the film "Gemini Man" held a huge China press conference in Shanghai. Not only did the film director Ang Lee, producer Jerry Bruckheimer and starring will smith all appear, but also the film’s heavyweight guest, young Will Smith Junior with special effects, came to the scene in a special way.

This is a digital character created by Ang Lee through special effects in movies, which can be called "the most expensive actor in Hollywood" and also the most painstaking role of Ang Lee. At the scene, Ang Lee also revealed that in fact, after he made a tiger with special effects from The Fantasy Drifting of Pi, he came up with the idea of creating "people". In order to make Junior look more real, Ang Lee not only watched the images of Will when he was young, but also studied Will’s face with a magnification of 6,000 times, and learned every detail by heart, which also made Ang Lee confidently say, "I know his face better than his mother. “

The production process is difficult, and will’s acting is not easy. It is reported that Junior is based on motion capture technology, which requires Will to play Junior from beginning to end. As a n experienced person, it’s so difficult to go back and play an ignorant young man that director Ang Lee can’t help feeling, "This is not through what you say, but through your eyes, so you should get rid of the sense of maturity and leave a sense of innocence. It is even more difficult to play a virgin if you are not a virgin. " While talking, I also asked Will to demonstrate on the spot, such as how to play the difference between a virgin and a virgin. Will’s vivid performance made everyone laugh, and the atmosphere was very happy.

Zoom in 6000 times and study Will’s face.

Ang Lee is confident: he knows better than his own mother.

On that day, the most important guest was 23-year-old Will Smith Junior, a fully digital character created by Ang Lee with 100% special effects. In order to win the trust of the audience, Ang Lee watched almost all the images of Will when he was young. "We magnified his face 6,000 times. I dare not say anything in life, but when it comes to face, I know more about it than his biological mother." Will, who met Junior for the first time, admitted that he was scared by the truth of Junior, a special effects person, and was "completely shocked and surprised".

It is a difficulty that the industry doesn’t want to touch to change into a real person on the big screen. Ang Lee also admitted that "this is the most difficult difficulty in special effects, and it takes a lot of money and effort this time." He even revealed that Junior is very expensive, two or three times more expensive than Will Smith, and can be regarded as the most expensive actor in Hollywood.

Will Smith succeeded in Ang Lee, idolize

"Working with him is my lifelong dream."

As early as 2013, Will Smith called Ang Lee for cooperation from a distance, and idolize’s dream finally came true for many years, which also made Will Smith unable to help but feel, "Working with Ang Lee is my lifelong dream, and it has finally come true this time." The excitement is beyond words, and he is a idolize teenager, very cute.

So how did the two cooperate this time? On-site Will revealed that director Ang Lee got rid of him with a phone call. "Ang Lee called me, and I didn’t listen to what I was going to play on the phone, so I said yes! yes！ ",said more, there are some directors in this world, you don’t need any reason, at his name will be promised. Ang Lee also said that the chemical reaction between the two was very good. He bluntly said, "He is not only an excellent actor, but also a big star. I am very moved by his willingness to invest unconditionally."

Playing the innocence of young people "stumps" Will.

Demonstrate how a virgin walks on the spot

Of course, the "cost" behind Will’s success in Ang Lee, idolize is not small. "Gemini Man" can be said to be the most challenging performance of Will since he started filming. He wants to play himself at the same time at two different ages, one is a mature and steady middle-aged man and the other is a young man. Will also said that the most difficult thing this time is to perform two people’s different eyes. "Different people have different eyes. How to convey the young and ignorant state with their eyes is the most difficult thing to grasp."

Ang Lee also stamped Will, which is not easy this time. "As a n experienced person, you should remove the sense of maturity from your eyes and perform innocence. It is really difficult to play a virgin without being a virgin. " Will, who was visited by Ang Lee cue, demonstrated the different ways of walking between virgins and non-virgins, and the performance in place made everyone laugh and admired the powerful actor.

The layout of the scene on that day was also very innovative, and the crisscross of blue and red colors complemented the brilliance of BFC Bund Financial Center. At the red carpet scene at night, many mirrors were put in a more ingenious way. It turns out that the killer played by Will Smith in the movie is afraid to look in the mirror and face himself. But that night, when he walked down the red carpet, he shined in front of the mirror, and the charm of the big star came to his face. Other guests present also signed their names in front of the mirror, and everyone saw their second self in the mirror, echoing the theme of "Gemini". The film Gemini Man will be shown nationwide on October 18th.

Is it more expensive to change TV screens than to buy a new TV？ Insiders： overhaul of digital products is not recommended.

　　Recently, a video about the price of changing TV screens exceeded that of buying a new TV, which attracted attention. Many consumers are puzzled that the cost of changing TV screens has reached 70% to 80% or even exceeded the price of the whole TV. In this regard, some people in color TV companies said that it is normal to change the screen more expensive than buying a new TV. Especially for low-end TVs with lower prices, the screen cost accounts for a higher proportion of the whole machine price. If you add increasing labor costs, the screen change price will exceed the price of new machines.

　　Professionals also remind consumers that from a technical point of view, it is not recommended to replace the core components of digital products separately, and it is not recommended to change the screen of TV sets that have been used for a long time.

　　Why does it cost 4600 yuan to change the screen of a TV bought for 2700 yuan?

　　Recently, a video of "2,700 yuan to buy a TV replacement screen actually needs 4,600 yuan" has attracted attention. The author said in the video that he spent 2700 yuan to buy a 75-inch TV set, but the accidentally broken screen needs to be replaced. After contacting the official customer service of the manufacturer, the price of changing the screen was as high as 4600 yuan. Consumers are dissatisfied with this. "Why is the price of changing a screen so much more expensive than buying a new machine?" The consumer said that he understood the fact that the TV screen can account for 70% to 80% of the cost of the whole TV set, and he could accept it if he spent more than 2,000 yuan on maintenance, but why did he quote as much as 4,000 yuan?

　　In this regard, the Beijing Youth Daily reporter got in touch with the relevant personnel of a color TV manufacturer. The other party said that it is true that the TV screen can account for 70% to 80% of the cost of the whole TV set, but consumers ignored the labor cost of changing the TV screen. In the era of intelligent production, it is not surprising that the labor cost of the same process is much higher than that of automatic production. According to industry practice, the labor cost of changing the screen of 75-inch TV will not be less than 2000 yuan.

　　TV LCD screen accounts for 70% to 80% of the total cost.

　　It is understood that TV screen is the biggest cost in TV production. Since the popularization of LCD TV, the cost of LCD screen can account for 60% to 70% of the total cost of the whole machine. If the module cost closely related to the screen is added, the proportion will even exceed 80%. In recent years, with the development of technology, although the proportion of screens has declined, it is still an absolute big head.

　　With the continuous promotion of panel localization, the cost of LCD screen has dropped rapidly, and the market price of LCD TV has also dropped sharply. This is why the 75-inch LCD TV only sells for more than 2,000 yuan, which is only equivalent to the price of a low-end mobile phone. However, this has also caused new problems, that is, the ratio of labor cost to TV price in TV after-sales maintenance is getting higher and higher, so consumers often complain that TV maintenance price is even higher than buying a new machine.

　　The reporter of Beiqing Daily inquired from the Internet that in recent years, consumers have repeatedly vomited or complained about this matter online. In May last year, Shaoxing consumer Ren Shifu spent 3,450 yuan to buy an LCD TV. Because the inner screen was broken, it needed to be changed. As a result, he was told that it would cost 3,400 yuan to change the screen. In December, 2021, Ms. Wang, a consumer in Chengdu, reported to the media that the Xiaomi TV she bought just had a three-year warranty, and there was a screen splash phenomenon. In the after-sales process, Ms. Wang was told by Xiaomi TV maintenance personnel that "only the screen can be changed", and the overall cost was over 3,000 yuan, accounting for about 80% of the original price of the TV. "It’s too exaggerated, which is to let consumers give up maintenance."

　　Digital products often have the problem that the maintenance price exceeds the new machine.

　　In fact, it is not a TV "patent" that the maintenance price exceeds the new machine. In the interview, the reporter of Beiqing Daily learned that there are many similar problems in digital products with high degree of automatic production, especially the replacement of core components with high cost, and the total price often reaches or even exceeds the price of buying new machines. For example, the price of replacing the motherboard with notebooks, mobile phones and digital cameras will be significantly higher than the price of new machines.

　　China electronic chamber of commerce Consumer Electronics Survey Office has paid attention to such issues as "the price of replacing lenses is almost 1,000 yuan" and "the price of screen maintenance exceeds that of new machines". However, in the survey, it was found that most of the digital products repaired by consumers were old products that had been used for several years, and the components of the old models were in short supply, and the production cost at that time was more expensive. If consumers compared with the same products with better performance now, the "cost performance" would definitely be uneconomical. Consumer Miss Zhang bought a 3,000-yuan digital camera in early 2018. After four years of use, there was an unusable fault, which was displayed as a motherboard fault according to the error code. When she found the seller who bought the camera at that time, she got the answer that she could only repair it at her own expense after the shelf life, and the total price exceeded 2,000 yuan. "Now the digital camera of the same grade only costs 2000 yuan, but I am used to this machine and I really can’t bear it." Miss Zhang is in a dilemma.

　　Digital products that have been used for a long time are not recommended for maintenance, and it is more appropriate to directly replace them with new ones.

　　Some digital manufacturers told the reporter of Beiqing Daily that for such digital products that have been used for a long time, it is actually not recommended for consumers to choose maintenance, and it is more appropriate to directly replace them with new ones. "This is not only a cost consideration, but also a technical suggestion. The first is the matching degree between various components. According to this person, in the product design, manufacturers will take the service life of each component into account as a whole, and the service life is matched with each other as a whole, thus avoiding the cost waste caused by the fact that some components have reached the service life and other components can operate normally for a long time. Take an ordinary digital camera as an example. If we don’t consider the outdated performance indicators, it is recommended to use a machine for about six years. If the motherboard fails after four years of use, we may encounter problems with other components two years later. "At that time, if you give up maintenance and replace it directly, it is equivalent to the fact that this new motherboard was laid off in only two years, which actually caused more waste." Of course, he also said that if it is only a minor fault of non-core components, it is worthwhile to spend a lower cost on maintenance.

　　On the other hand, the precision integration of digital products is high, and the precision and standardization of manual maintenance and installation are definitely not as good as integrated manufacturing. Theoretically, there are also cases where the service life and performance of the same parts after manual installation are not as good as the original ones. Therefore, consumers are advised to be cautious about the overhaul of the core components of digital products.

　　Text/Reporter zhangqin Coordinator/Chi Haibo

CITIC Securities： The market underestimated the impact of the Japanese nuclear pollution incident on the competition pattern of China’s beauty industry, and suggested paying attention to the replaceme

We believe that the market underestimated the impact of the Japanese nuclear pollution incident on the competition pattern of China’s beauty industry. (1) According to the sea discharge plan announced by the Japanese government, the nuclear polluted water will be discharged into the sea for at least 30 years, with strong persistence and repetitiveness. Every time the sea discharge is started every year, it may cause a new round of concern, and events such as pollution caused by sea discharge may cause staged public opinion. ② This incident has caused a great impact on Japanese cosmetics in brand, product, channel and marketing dimensions. Based on the leading operation precision of new domestic channels and continuous breakthrough in product strength, we believe that Chinese cosmetics is expected to make up for its position quickly and continue to expand its market share in the medium and long term. (3) Japanese cosmetics account for a relatively high proportion in sunscreen, cleansing and suits, and the price band is positioned at the high end, so the above areas have great substitution opportunities. Pay attention to the sunscreen track with large space for daily makeup replacement and strong growth potential, and the skin care track with large space for daily makeup replacement; Pay attention to the upstream raw material industry chain with continuous technological breakthrough and upgrading.

▍The discharge of nuclear pollution water into the sea has caused negative public opinion, and Japanese cosmetics products, channels and brands are under pressure in many aspects.

The Japanese government launched the Fukushima nuclear pollution water discharge plan from August 24, 2023, which will last for at least 30 years. The related events have caused a lot of negative public opinions. The Japanese makeup lies in: 1) brand dimension: consumer aversion caused by national sentiment+brand quality reputation double blow; 2) Product dimension: safety causes consumers’ concerns; 3) Channels and marketing: KOL cooperation in new channels is negatively affected. Under the pressure of many sides, the sales of Japanese cosmetics fell after the incident of discharging the sea.

▍It is estimated that there will be more than 7 billion alternative spaces, and there will be great opportunities in the middle and high-end positioning, sun protection and skin care products.

It is estimated that Japanese cosmetics will give over 7 billion market share in two years:Based on the assumption that the negative impact of the nuclear pollution incident continues, with reference to the sharp drop of 21% in Japanese cosmetics imports from January to November 2023 and the general drop of 15% in Japanese Top brand sales in 2023, we estimate that the market size of Japanese brands will drop by about 15% in 2023, giving up about 5.2 billion yuan. In terms of the Japanese market scale in 2024, we made three scenarios based on the import data, the sales data of Japanese brands after the cooperation of Daren, and Shiseido’s statement at the 3Q23 performance meeting. It is estimated that the total market space of Japanese cosmetics in 2023~24E will be 5.8-10.5 billion yuan, and the neutral hypothesis is expected to be about 7.5 billion yuan.

There are great opportunities for mid-to high-end positioning, sun protection and skin care products:Referring to the main Japanese brands covering the middle and high price bands, and according to Euromonitor data, the sales scale of high-end Japanese brands is about 24.2 billion yuan, accounting for 70%. We judge that the market share given by Japanese brands is relatively high-end, and the brands in the upgraded price band have hope to undertake it. With reference to the market scale of Japanese cosmetics, 64% is for skin care, 11% is for make-up and 10% is for sun protection, which respectively account for 9%/7%/23% of the market scale of skin care, make-up and sun protection in China. Considering that the makeup category mostly adopts OEM mode, the impact is relatively light, we think that sun protection and skin care track are more likely to be replaced. Further subdividing the skin care market, we find that Japanese brands account for the sub-category of cleansing and facial care suits.

▍National makeup opportunities: the sun protection track has a high growth and superimposed daily makeup replacement opportunities, and the skin care track has a selection of cleansing and suit segmentation.

1) High growth of sunscreen track+replacement of daily makeup, and the national makeup leader will benefit first under the management of special certificate.According to Euromonitor, the sunscreen track is a traditional advantage category of Japanese makeup, with a Japanese market share of 24%; In the first big promotion after the nuclear waste water incident, the market share of Japanese sunscreen amoy declined by 10%, and that of Tik Tok declined by 4%. The penetration rate of sunscreen cosmetics in China is low. According to NMPA standard, the penetration rate of women who normally use sunscreen products in the peak season of sunscreen is only about 16%. In the field of children’s sun protection in the cultivation period, a series of sun protection products with sales exceeding 400 million yuan have also appeared, and there is sufficient room for development. In addition, because sunscreen products are under special license management, the registration period needs 9-15 months, and we judge that the national makeup faucet that lays out the sunscreen track in advance is expected to benefit first.

2) The skin care track is a must, paying attention to the cleansing and suit subdivision with large replacement space.According to the data of the blast furnace, Japanese brands account for 51% of the Top10 cleansers and 23% of the facial care packages, and there are great potential replacement opportunities. Among them, the domestic cleansing positioning is cost-effective, the product strength is equal to Kerun, and the new channel operation is significantly ahead of Japan, which is expected to replace the mid-range Japanese cleansing market. The segmentation of facial care suits is dominated by foreign brands, positioning the overall high-end, and high-end products and high-end brands of national cosmetics are expected to be partially undertaken; At the same time, the leading domestic products in the expansion stage of large single products form a set of "stocking goods" with star single products, which greatly increases the unit price of customers and also has certain development opportunities.

▍The attention of Japanese raw materials has increased, catalyzing the further upgrading of the national cosmetics industry chain.

Japanese raw material manufacturers have good overall color, smell and quality, mainly core skeleton raw materials and monomer active ingredients, and are leading the world in some segments; Local raw material manufacturers cover more comprehensively and achieve breakthroughs in Japanese in individual segments. With the increasing attention paid to cosmetics raw materials after the nuclear water pollution incident, the upstream industrial chains such as R&D and raw materials are enriched in China, and the cosmetics supply chain in China is gradually recognized internationally. The incident will further promote the perfection and upgrading of the national cosmetics industrial chain.

▍Risk factors:

There is a high degree of uncertainty about the impact and duration of the nuclear pollution water discharge event; Skin care products are typical optional consumer goods, if residents’ consumption willingness and confidence are weak or have a negative impact on companies in the industry; If the regulatory policy changes beyond expectations, it may lead to a corresponding slowdown in the growth rate of industries and enterprises; The risk that the product strength and brand strength of local brands are not improved as expected; The risk of concentrated sales of e-commerce platform; The risk of changes in marketing channels; Risks of technology research and development.

▍Investment strategy: pay attention to the replacement opportunities of Japanese makeup in combination with the main line of growth.

We believe that the market underestimated the impact of the Japanese nuclear pollution incident on the competition pattern of China’s beauty industry. (1) According to the sea discharge plan announced by the Japanese government, the nuclear polluted water will be discharged into the sea for at least 30 years, with strong persistence and repetitiveness. Every time the sea discharge is started every year, it may cause a new round of concern, and events such as pollution caused by sea discharge may cause staged public opinion. ② The incident caused a great impact on the brand, products, channels and marketing dimensions of Japanese cosmetics. Based on the leading operation precision of new domestic channels and the continuous breakthrough of product strength, we believe that Chinese cosmetics is expected to make up for its position quickly and continue to expand its market share in the medium and long term. (3) Japanese cosmetics account for a relatively high proportion in sunscreen, cleansing and suits, and the price band is positioned at the high end, so the above areas have great substitution opportunities. Pay attention to the sunscreen track with large space for daily makeup replacement and strong growth potential, and the skin care track with large space for daily makeup replacement; Pay attention to the existence of upstream raw material industry chain that constantly breaks through and upgrades.