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Statistics is a science about data. All the collected data need to be sorted out and analyzed before a conclusion can be drawn, which is the whole process of statistics using data to solve practical problems. However, you will find that the same data can be analyzed by different methods and different conclusions can be drawn, and different data can also be analyzed by the same method. Such as weather forecast, different forecasting agencies have different forecast results. Moreover, the conclusions drawn from statistical analysis are often uncertain (Uncertainty), because it often describes the opportunity of something happening, which can be measured by probability. For example, the probability of precipitation in the weather forecast, as we all know, if the probability of precipitation is as high as 90%, it is likely to rain. If the probability of precipitation is only 5%, everyone will think that it will hardly rain. But it won’t rain in the actual situation, and we can only know when the predicted day really comes.

Statistics focuses on the quantitative characteristics of a large number of repeatable things. This is because in some fields, some conclusions are difficult to be described with certainty like mathematical formulas or theorems. For example, when parents are taller, most people think that their children will be taller. But when you observe the height of a parent and their children, you will find that some parents who are taller are not tall. Therefore, height has a certain randomness (randomness）。 This randomness may be related to human genes, living environment, acquired diet, living habits and other factors. However, on the whole, the height of children of taller parents tends to be higher, which has long been confirmed by the experimental data of Gao Erdun (1822-1911), a famous British biologist and statistician, in 1855. It is random that a person’s height may be different. But on the whole, the stability of average height shows that there is a law in randomness, which is the statistical law. Therefore, it can be further said that statistics is also a knowledge of finding out statistical laws.

　　Stars and anchors are essentially two circles of people.

　　But no matter who is in the besieged city, the foundation under the city wall is the same.

　　The beautiful scenery of one side means that the autumn wind of the other side is bleak, and now both sides are enduring the pain of grabbing things from their opponents’ bowls.

　　Wen | Ge Yu

　　Source | Zinc Finance (ID: xincaijing)

　　Jin Cuodao (ijincuodao) authorized reprint.

　　A few days ago, Li Jiaqi invited Yang Mi in the live broadcast room, but was sent to a hot search for improper driving, and finally ended up apologizing. But what is better than an apology is the "smell of gunpowder" revealed by both sides during the live broadcast.

　　Yesterday, Wu Yifan, one of the "traffic star representatives", appeared in the live broadcast room of Queen Viya, but it triggered a debate about who brought the traffic of this live broadcast.

　　Online celebrity, who seems to be thriving and extremely harmonious, has been full of gunpowder after sharing a mobile phone screen with the stars.

　　Wu Yifan’s live broadcast in Viya

　　As far as the star is concerned, the time that users originally spent on variety shows and TV dramas on their own platforms was taken away by the live broadcast, and even the remuneration was not as much as that of online celebrity’s commission for a delivery; Online celebrity, on the other hand, longs for the status and face of the so-called star in the circle.

　　One side stands on the opposite side of "fame" and the other side stands on the opposite side of "profit", but at the same time, both sides stand on the same flow Ikenoe. This means that the interests of both sides come from the same source.

　　It is only a matter of time before online celebrity and the stars, from the current "infighting", evolve into a larger "open struggle".

　　one

　　Underneath contempt

　　One is the elder brother with goods, and the other is the eldest sister in the circle who grew up from the "four little Hua Dan" in the entertainment circle. Their first show on the same screen attracted the attention of all circles.

　　In this two-hour live broadcast on Yang Mi platform, what is better than an apology is the smell of gunpowder during the live broadcast.

　　Li Jiaqi told Yang Mi that generally only half an hour was given to other stars, but she was given two hours.

　　In Li Jiaqi’s view, this is to explain her "importance" to Yang Mi, but unexpectedly, she was directly replied by Yang Mi Sanlian: "Why do you look down on them? Who do you despise? They are not important? "

　　Li Jiaqi played an inappropriate joke, and Yang Mi was the face of Estee Lauder.

　　Between this round of dialogue, although both sides are smiling, they have obviously felt the smell of gunpowder. The whole live broadcast came down, and there were many embarrassing points.

　　The reason for this dialogue is that two people are standing in the opposite circle of each other. In the eyes of stars, the anchor may just be a "sales" who can sell things.

　　In fact, what Yang Mi said is not wrong. If it is not a first-line star like Yang Mi and continues to be hot, it is really not so important for Li Jiaqi to invite other stars to bring goods. To put it bluntly, the arrival of the stars after the first line will neither bring me too much extra traffic nor bring out more of my goods.

　　However, Yang Mi, as a representative of the star circle, will not give in when he hears this implication, and he will directly ask three questions during the live broadcast. Judging from the embarrassing circus in Li Jiaqi at that time, the star party represented by Yang Mi gained the upper hand.

　　This also points out another contradiction between the two. The so-called stars have always regarded these online celebrity as "superior"-even if you are more popular and bring goods to make money, you can’t compare with the identity and status of stars.

　　In fact, this is also online celebrity’s unwilling but true psychological state.

　　According to anecdotal reports, Viya, the queen of live broadcast, has also poached people who have been hanging out in the Beijing entertainment circle for a long time. The meaning behind it is self-evident. She wants to enter the entertainment circle at a higher level in the eyes of both stars and online celebrity.

　　Recently, Viya also participated in the recording of "Ace to Ace" in the tenth issue of Zhejiang Satellite TV, and served as a flying guest. But during the performance, there was an embarrassing scene: Guan Xiaotong shouted "Buy it!"! Buy it! " . And this, it is Li Jiaqi’s mantra.

　　Viya participated in the "Ace to Ace" variety recording network.

　　Even the anchors as big as Viya and Li Jiaqi, even if they are "millions a minute", even if they bring a thread of e-commerce economy, even in their own eyes, they are still three points shorter than the stars.

　　2

　　Cann’t let go of the figure

　　However, is it true that stars who look high are not greedy?

　　By no means.

　　I want money, but I still want to save face. But it is a true portrayal of some jealous stars at the moment.

　　Lin Bo, the person in charge of the e-commerce module in the live broadcast cargo belt circle, told Zinc Finance that his team had had contact with Kathy CHAU’s team, once known as "the head of the jade girl".

　　In the understanding of most stars and agents, the live broadcast is just "the introduction of the host and occasionally a few words". Generally speaking, the anchor broadcasts live for at least six hours a day, but Zhou’s agent thinks that "three hours is too long".

　　The broker who emphasized the "price" throughout the whole process finally said that the cooperation was only a test of water, and the effect was not guaranteed, and the price was 250,000 RMB per hour. They also know in their hearts that "if the first show is not satisfactory, there will be no second show", but they still try their best to make quick money at one time.

　　Kathy CHAU Tuyuan Network, the former head of Jade Girl.

　　Lin Bo told Zinc Finance, "The failure of this cooperation lies in the fact that Kathy CHAU’s team refused or dared not let us examine them with the eyes of the anchor with goods, and refused to cooperate with us with the attitude of the anchor with goods."

　　Like Kathy CHAU, even if he wants to try live broadcast, he still holds the mentality of "notice fee".

　　In fact, the stars themselves know exactly how much they can carry goods and how the mass base is. There has always been a chain of contempt between the star and the anchor. If you appear at the price of a star, it is naturally fine, but once you are labeled as an anchor, it is very different.

　　There are many such traffic illusions.

　　A live broadcast in Wong Cho Lam brought goods, the pit fee was 100,000 +30% commission, the viewing volume was 420,000, and the store volume was 60,000. Finally, 66 boxes of 58 yuan/box dry powder were sold; Li Xiang broadcast live for 5 minutes and offered 800,000 yuan. In the end, none of the minks were sold, and only 77 cans of milk powder were sold.

　　Star live selling goods, of course, has its own advantages, and can use its own identity aura to attract everyone’s attention.

　　But if you really want to sell the goods, professional anchors are more reliable-they are familiar with the characteristics of the products, the psychology of the audience, and know how to introduce the products, so that the audience can accept them most easily. Behind this, it is often the accumulation of several years and the perseverance of broadcasting more than 300 games a year.

　　Li Jiaqi and Viya, it’s really not that easy.

　　However, there are not cases without successful transformation in the circle.

　　After the incident of PGone, Li XiaoLu was banned from the whole entertainment circle.

　　Many people regret that she went from being a young and famous actress to being a network anchor after playing a good hand. Live delivery is a piece of fat meat. Recently, after Li XiaoLu started live webcasting delivery, it has reached 47,696,200 sales, which is already the level of the head anchor.

　　Tuyuan Network in Li XiaoLu Live Broadcasting

　　From the beginning to the end, you should have excellent eloquence and strong on-the-spot reaction ability. Li Xiang, who is a host, is also a star who has done well in the live broadcast of stars.

　　Li Xiang has 2.438 million fans since its first live broadcast of Taobao on April 22, 2019. Growth hackers have counted a set of data. In November last year, Li Xiang opened 10 live broadcasts, with a total sales volume of 389,000 and sales of 52.63 million.

　　Also being compared are Sydney, online celebrity and other Taobao live broadcast head anchors. Sydney broadcasts 39 live broadcasts a month, with a sales volume of 1.226 million and sales of 530 million. In Zhang Dayi, there were 42 live broadcasts, with sales of 1.672 million and sales of 610 million.

　　Although there is still a certain distance from the head anchor, it is enough to be regarded as a successful case of "stars going to the sea".

　　Although the stars bring their own large traffic, online celebrity’s ability to bring goods is much stronger than that of the stars in the Taobao live broadcast ecology. After all, the professional Taobao anchor is indeed more professional in selling goods.

　　However, are the stars who establish a cool image and maintain their independent personality in front of the big screen really ready to please fans, be as excited as TV shopping guides, and make frequent golden sentences?

　　With the popularity of e-commerce live broadcast, there is a trend of imitating Li Jiaqi in the field of live broadcast. Think about it carefully, Li Jiaqi is very much like the TV shopping guide Hou Zong, who was once popular in the north and south of the country and was famous for his "eight hearts and eight arrows".

　　In any case, yelling at the top of your lungs in the live broadcast room like chicken blood may really not be suitable for stars.

　　three

　　There will be a war.

　　The entertainment circle is like a fence. The stars inside want to jump out, while online celebrity outside tries to get in.

　　Zinc Finance also elaborated in the article "Fighting for Time: The Secret Unlimited War of the Internet" that the current mobile traffic dividend is exhausted, which is essentially robbing users of screen usage time and attention.

　　Obviously, variety shows, TV dramas with stars as the main force, and live broadcasts with anchors as the two main areas of user attention on the current mobile terminal are essentially opposites. It is impossible for both sides to live in peace in business logic.

　　At the same time, they are coveting each other’s bowls. In the final analysis, it is nothing more than that those who get the name want to benefit, and those who are beneficial want the name.

　　But it is not so easy to cross-circle integration. Although both sides are based on the same flow Ikenoe, the way they grow up is qualitatively different.

　　Most of the so-called stars are packaged by talent shows or brokerage companies. From the beginning, they are displayed in front of fans and the public as a "packaged" image. In other words, what fans think of as "love beans" is probably not what they are.

　　The originator of China talent show "Super Girl" Tuyuan Network

　　This is also the fundamental reason why there will be traffic stars in the entertainment circle, and it will often be revealed that someone has collapsed. Such as the recent events in Show Lo and Qu Chuxiao.

　　On this basis, once the packaging is successful, it is more realized by harvesting the fan economy under the operation of the capital circle of film and television entertainment.

　　Under such a form of operation, it is bound to be impossible for a star to "show his true self" in front of the camera every day like an anchor. On the one hand, they are used to being on top; On the other hand, minutes will explode because of saying the wrong thing.

　　The anchor threshold is relatively low, and even some online celebrity was born at the grassroots level. However, the over-packaging of stars has become their weakness, and negative news has occurred from time to time.

　　For online celebrity, who squeezed into the entertainment circle, she will also fall quickly because of her unworthiness. Online celebrity, such as Li Ge, Yifa Chen and Wen Wan, who were once smash hits, were banned one after another for "gaffes and gaffes".

　　But no matter the people in that besieged city, the foundation under the wall is the same. The beautiful scenery of one side represents the bleak autumn wind of the other side.

　　Now, both sides are enduring pains and reaching for the things in each other’s bowls. However, it is only a matter of time before the food is so little.

　　(At the request of the interviewer, Lin Bo in the text is a pseudonym.)

This article first appeared on WeChat WeChat official account: Jin Cuodao. The content of the article belongs to the author’s personal opinion and does not represent Hexun.com’s position. Investors should operate accordingly, at their own risk.

　　● The platform "playing method" for issuing digital collections is similar: the ways to obtain digital collections include pre-sale, auction, lottery, blind box opening, synthesis, new user registration, etc. Users can snap up for a few yuan to several hundred yuan, and the sale becomes the norm.

　　● As an innovative application of blockchain technology, digital collections have positive significance for spreading excellent culture. However, due to its short appearance in China, the identification and supervision standards have not yet been established, resulting in chaos. In order to prevent the digital collection market from continuing to "run wild" with problems, benign supervision and industry regulation should be established in time to make technology better serve the art.

　　● Before purchasing digital collections, consumers should know whether the copyright owner of the works authorizes the platform to make digital collections for distribution and limited sales, choose a regular platform to purchase them, do not click on the links of unfamiliar websites sent by the other party at will, and do not authorize them at will. They should regularly check and clean up the authorized contracts, and keep the private key safe from external disclosure to ensure the safety of assets.

　　□ Rule of Law Daily reporter Han Dandong

　　□ Fan Xiaoya, Intern of Rule of Law Daily

　　"The cost price is 0.99 yuan, and it is sold in 400 yuan" and "you can earn it when you buy it" … … Recently, digital collections that are "visible and intangible" have been popular.

　　Digital collection refers to the unique digital voucher generated by using blockchain technology corresponding to specific works and artworks, and realizes authentic digital distribution, purchase, collection and use on the basis of protecting its digital copyright.

　　According to the recent incomplete statistics of the reporter of Rule of Law Daily, there are more than 100 platforms for distributing digital collections in China, and the "playing methods" of these platforms are similar: the ways to obtain digital collections include pre-sale, auction, lottery, blind box opening, synthesis, and new user registration, etc. Users can buy them at a cost of several yuan to several hundred yuan, and it is normal to sell them.

　　Behind the popularity of digital collections, complaints have continued: up to now, there have been more than 2,500 complaints about "digital collections" on the black cat complaint platform alone. Consumer complaints mainly focus on the platform suspected of speculation and price gouging; Merchants falsely deliver goods without refund; Data loss, theft of purchased collections, etc.

　　Many industry experts interviewed by reporters pointed out that digital collections, as an innovative application of blockchain technology, have positive significance for spreading excellent culture. However, due to their short appearance in China, the identification and supervision standards have not yet been established, leading to chaos. In order to prevent the digital collection market from continuing to "run wild" with problems, benign supervision and industry regulation should be established in time to make technology better serve the art.

　　The price is over 100 times.

　　Collection trading routine is not shallow.

　　Mr. Li, from Langfang, Hebei Province, tested the water digital collection. He bought a portrait of a girl in the early Tang Dynasty for 0.99 yuan on an App, and then sold it in 400 yuan. After deducting the handling fee, the platform actually received the payment from 350 yuan.

　　The profit made Mr. Li taste the sweetness. Then, he spent 6499 yuan to snap up the collection of "Mei Lanfang’s Mulan Joining the Army" digital vinyl records, and sold it on the platform at 6999 yuan, while the original price of the album was 199 yuan. Soon, the platform showed that someone had taken the order, but it had not been paid. After the payment time was exceeded, Mr. Li wanted to take the goods off the shelf and sell them again when they were hot. As a result, the platform locked the order. As a result, he could not take the collection off the shelf, nor could he put it on the shelf to trade again, and the lock time was as long as 24 hours. After it was unlocked the next day, the market price of the collection dropped to about 4,000 yuan, and then dropped to 1,999 yuan a week later.

　　Mr. Li filed a lawsuit against the company affiliated to the platform, hoping that the other party could return the goods for a refund. Company staff replied: all losses were caused by Mr. Li’s improper operation, and the company will not bear any responsibility.

　　After this incident, Mr. Li found that this is a common routine of the platform: first, attract users with low-priced collections, and then raise the prices of some collections with low actual prices. When users spend a lot of money to buy and resell, the order is locked for a long time and cannot be successfully traded. After this heat, the price of the collection will continue to fall, and the user will bear the loss. The platform will draw more than 10% of the fee when the price of the collection is the highest, so as to earn the handling fee.

　　In the view of Wang Zhenhua, head of the legal working group of Shanghai Blockchain Technology Research Center, the trading platform of digital collections, as a network service provider, has no right to restrict users’ use of network services without authorization, and has no right to freeze users’ virtual property without authorization, thus causing losses to consumers, and should be liable for compensation according to law.

　　"If the platform locks the order to restrict the transaction, whether it constitutes infringement shall be subject to the specific operation content and the rights and obligations clearly stipulated in the agreement signed by both parties." Wang Zhenhua said.

　　He added that if the trading platform of digital collections speculates on commodities in its operation, it is suspected of violating the relevant provisions of the price law: if operators collude with each other to manipulate market prices, it will harm the legitimate rights and interests of other operators or consumers; Whoever fabricates and disseminates information about price increases, drives up prices and pushes commodity prices up too high will be fined according to law, and if his behavior is serious, it may also constitute the crime of illegal business operation.

　　Merchants circle money to play "missing"

　　It is too difficult for consumers to defend their rights.

　　Unlike Mr. Li, Mr. Zhang from Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province bought a fake on the platform. Not long ago, he bought a digital collection through a WeChat official account for 276 yuan. As a result, the pictures he received didn’t have any transaction logo and work logo, but regular digital collections would have a unique logo.

　　He contacted the platform to reflect the situation. As a result, he did not contact the merchant until the system automatically confirmed the receipt. The platform finally gave a reply: the online store has been frozen and there is no balance available, and the platform does not assume any responsibility.

　　Mr. Zhang, who suffered from YaBaKui, later discovered that there were still many people who were cheated like him. They built a social group with more than 2,000 members. "Everyone in the group was cheated for several hundred yuan."

　　Mr. Wang from Baoding, Hebei Province is one of them. He learned about the relevant digital collections through the internal air-drop activity of "Dayu Digital Collection" in WeChat official account, and spent 110 yuan to buy two digital collections, but the two pictures he received were without any logo. Mr. Wang contacted the platform, and the other party replied: Due to the special nature of digital collections, the after-sales authority of orders is all in the merchants.

　　However, the merchants who provide Mr. Wang with digital collections can’t be contacted at all.

　　After paying attention to the "Dayu Digital Collection" WeChat official account, the reporter clicked on the link of the official store in WeChat official account, and the blank page was displayed. Click on the purchase through the H5 link, indicating that the collection has been removed. The reporter browsed the relevant collection information and found that the sales of several previously popular collections were around two or three thousand.

　　According to members of social groups, the platform has been rectified at the request of relevant departments and no longer provides digital collection sales services.

　　In Wang Zhenhua’s view, the pictures sent by merchants don’t have any transaction logos and works logos, which obviously don’t conform to the appearance of formal digital collections and don’t belong to real digital collections. The online shop selling false digital collections is suspected of violating the law and should bear corresponding responsibilities. If the circumstances involved are serious, it may also constitute a criminal offence.

　　Wang Zhenhua believes that according to the e-commerce law, when there is a dispute between consumers and operators in the platform, the platform has the obligation to assist consumers to safeguard their legitimate rights and interests. According to the Consumer Protection Law, if consumers buy goods or receive services through online trading platforms and their legitimate rights and interests are damaged, they can claim compensation from sellers or service providers. In addition, the platform failed to fulfill its qualification audit obligations or was imposed administrative punishment by the market supervision department.

　　Collection transaction implies risks.

　　Beware of intellectual property infringement

　　In addition to driving up prices and false delivery, there are also many hidden dangers in the transaction security of digital collection platforms.

　　Ms. Wen, from Guigang, Guangxi, bought a digital collection by recharging 80 yuan with an App. As a result, she found that the purchased goods were not displayed in her personal account, and there was no purchase record, which was suspected to have been completely cleared by the system. The next day, Ms. Wen contacted customer service for a refund until the third day.

　　Ms. Wen is still lucky to get a successful refund. According to her understanding, many people have encountered similar problems with her. "The money was swallowed, the customer service did not handle it, and no compensation was received from the platform." The explanation given by the platform is: "The platform database has suffered a lot of malicious attacks, and criminals have falsely purchased and stolen players’ collections, resulting in abnormal data. For the losses caused, the platform will give each player a compensation. "

　　In April this year, an artist posted on social media that the digital collection of paintings of ape heads that he had previously received was stolen by phishing websites. After that, on the foreign NFT trading platform, the avatar was changed hands with 130 Ethereum and 155 Ethereum virtual coins in about one hour.

　　At the same time, the risk of intellectual property infringement is gradually emerging. On May 28th, Xu Beihong Art Museum issued a statement stating that it was concerned that some digital platforms sold related digital collections for gimmicks in the name of Mr. Xu Beihong. Some of the original works of these digital collections were counterfeit, some could not provide complete traceability evidence, and some works had nothing to do with Mr. Xu Beihong at all.

　　The reporter found in a digital collection App that the platform distinguishes between the copyright market and the derivative market, and informed in the "Notice of Rights and Interests" that the purchase of works in the copyright market will obtain other copyrights of the digital artwork except personal rights (including reproduction rights and distribution rights, etc.); If you buy derivative works, you will have the right to possess, use and dispose of the digital works of art. Special note: If you are interested in commercial license and authorization of this digital artwork, it is suggested that you enter into a written Copyright Transfer Agreement with the copyright owner and register the copyright transfer.

　　Wang Zhenhua said that the platform is "specially prompted" because the copyright of digital works of art belongs to the copyright owner, and the buyer who buys digital works of art through the information network only enjoys the limited right to use the digital works of art, such as collection, study, research and appreciation, etc. If the buyer uses it beyond his own rights, it will easily infringe on the intellectual property rights of the obligee. Therefore, if consumers need to use digital works of art for other commercial purposes other than the agreed content, they need to sign a written agreement with the copyright owner and register them.

　　Zhao Shujie, a partner of Beijing Tianda Gonghe Law Firm, believes that domestic digital collections mainly make digital or physical collections into blockchain digital collections for limited sale, so the risks of domestic digital collections are more reflected in the intellectual property risks in the production and trading links. Without the consent of the copyright owner, the second creation and sale of digital collections may infringe the rights of the copyright owner. If an investor buys an infringing digital collection, it is not illegal to buy it, but through traceable transaction records, it can be shown that the purchased digital collection belongs to infringing works, and investors or consumers will suffer economic losses.

　　Therefore, Zhao Shujie suggested that investors should check whether the seller enjoys the copyright before purchasing the digital collection, including the copyright registration certificate, the certificate issued by the copyright certification body and other legal rights certificates of the digital collection. At the same time, the digital collection trading platform should also play the main responsibility of the platform, take the initiative to fulfill the platform enterprise review obligations, and protect the legitimate rights of the right holders.

　　Establish a correct concept of consumption

　　Choose the trading platform carefully

　　"Buying digital collections has potential technical risks and economic risks." Zhu Jie, a senior partner of Taihetai Law Firm, said that on the one hand, the seller used the blockchain technology that consumers did not understand to defraud consumers of their property; On the other hand, digital collections are traded through smart contracts. Hackers may steal users’ digital collections through hacking techniques, or induce users to authorize a smart contract through phishing websites, and then steal digital collections from users’ wallets through smart contracts.

　　Then, from the consumer’s point of view, how to maintain the safety of their own property when trading digital collections?

　　Zhu Jie suggested that before purchasing digital collections, consumers should know whether the copyright owner of the works authorizes the platform to make digital collections for distribution and limited sales, choose a regular platform to purchase them, do not click on unfamiliar website links sent by the other party at will, and do not authorize them at will. They should regularly check and clean up the authorized contracts, and keep the private key safe from being leaked to ensure the safety of assets.

　　Wang Zhenhua said that consumers must first understand that digital collections should not have any financial value, and do not try to gain short-term benefits by speculating digital collections; When choosing a digital collection platform, we should choose a platform with corresponding qualifications, strength, full positive market influence and credibility, and a stable user base. Such platforms should be information technology enterprises registered and recognized by the National Network Information Office.

　　"We should also pay attention to the platform agreement and transaction mode, whether the platform agreement is formal, whether the prompt obligation of key terms is strictly fulfilled, whether the transaction mode provided by the platform is legal, and whether the transaction records will be completely preserved and displayed; Whether the issuer has the corresponding administrative licensing qualifications such as network and cultural operation, and whether there are any infringements or illegal acts in the collections issued in the past. " Wang Zhenhua warned.

　　Comics/Gao Yue　　

The National Bureau of Statistics recently released economic data for October. In terms of consumption, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in October was 4,027.10 billion yuan, down 0.5% year-on-year; Cumulatively, from January to October, it increased by 0.6% year-on-year, which was 0.1 percentage point slower than last month. The consumption situation in October showed that the market demand was insufficient, and more offline consumption turned to online. According to Wind’s data, nearly two-thirds of the sample cities (the sample is 29 cities that continue to count subway passenger traffic in Wind database) have a decrease in the average number of daily trips in October compared with September; At the same time, the e-commerce "Double Eleven" activity was launched in the same month. In October, the retail sales of online goods and services increased by 4.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.9 percentage points faster than that of the previous month. The cumulative online retail sales of physical goods accounted for 26.2% of the total retail sales of consumer goods, the highest in recent years. On the whole, however, the current market consumption willingness is still insufficient, which is also reflected in the negative short-term RMB loans added by residents and enterprises (institutions) in that month (-51.200 billion yuan and-184.300 billion yuan respectively).

Liu Jialiang, a native of Guangzhou, can’t live without the word "martial arts" all his life. He and his father are both martial arts people, and their martial arts are well-known, and they have inherited the pulse of Huang Feihong. Here in Liu Jialiang, he is based on kung fu movies with extraordinary skill. On his way to success, Zhang Che is undoubtedly one of his nobles. When Zhang Che filmed "Three Heroes in Border Town" in his early years, Liu Jialiang was still working in Shaw. Due to the lack of good martial arts actors, Zhang Che at that time took a fancy to Liu Jialiang and others who were helping Teng Hung Hsu shoot new martial arts, which started the vigorous development of Liu Jialiang’s martial arts career.

The cooperation between Zhang Che and Liu Jialiang was exceptionally smooth at first, and classic works such as One-armed Knife were produced. Zhang Che completely gave the martial arts play to Liu Jialiang, and this trust and affirmation continued until the Taiwan Province studio. At this time, Liu Jialiang had the idea of directing his own film, and he had a conflict with Zhang Che and parted ways from now on. Since then, Liu Jialiang has re-entered Shaw and cooperated with Ni Kuang.

Later, under the direction of Liu Jialiang, the elements of comedy were developed from the pure drama in the past, from the budding application in "God Strike" to the series of "Drunken Boxing", which was completely popular in China. Liu Jialiang also took the opportunity to integrate his real martial arts style into his works. From the films such as Thirty-six Rooms of Shaolin, Master of Shaolin Tent, and Bagua Stick of Five Lang, it is not difficult to see that the realistic fighting pictures occupy a large space of the film, and one of the tricks and styles is extremely clear, as if it happened in front of people, which thoroughly analyzes the essence of martial arts to the audience and spares no effort to share martial arts books with the audience.

It is Liu Jialiang’s spirit of dedicating his martial arts to the big screen that makes him achieve great success in the field of kung fu movies. Even after the new millennium and Shaw’s suspension of production, he has always stood firm in the ever-changing entertainment circle.

However, Liu Jialiang, who is pragmatic and realistic in martial arts, is not always smooth sailing. He and Jackie Chan fell out in drunken master 2. Their discussion of drama is totally different. Liu Jialiang insists on a down-to-earth style, but in Jackie Chan’s view, he ignores artistic vision. Jackie Chan resolutely carried out his juggling style in the important shooting parts of the film, such as the ending and Lu Huiguang’s fighting, and overthrew all the completed action scenes planned by Liu Jialiang and filmed them again. In this way, the two naturally fell out completely.

In addition to Jackie Chan, Liu Jialiang and Jet Li also had a bad time. And this incident has deep geographical reasons. At that time, Hong Kong people looked down on mainlanders, and this discrimination broke out obviously when the two places cooperated for the first time with the Shaolin theme work "North and South Shaolin". Being in it, Jet Li was very angry and vowed never to cooperate with Liu Jialiang.

In Jet Li’s view, when co-producing "North and South Shaolin", the treatment of mainlanders and Hong Kong people in the crew was too far off the mark. Hong Kong people do less work but earn more. They earn hundreds of thousands of dollars every month, but they can get tens of dollars a day when they sleep on the ground, while mainlanders get a few dollars only when they are busy for a day. In this case, they will not have a sense of protest, so it is strange that they can still work normally.

What really touched the bottom line of Jet Li was a shooting of sunrise. Anyone who has taken part in filming knows that sunrise and sunset are the same, and the light changes very quickly, and every second counts, so it is extremely difficult to shoot, so the crew started work on the spot a few hours before sunrise. So when Jet Li and his party were informed by Li Jialiang that they would be on standby at 2 a.m. and had to wear headgear in advance, they didn’t feel strange, but they waited all night, but they didn’t see Li Jialiang. When the sun was shining, Li Jialiang came, and he just said airily that he couldn’t shoot, so he wouldn’t shoot. Jet Li was furious. This was obviously playing with them, and he never wanted to cooperate with Li Jialiang.

Therefore, it can be seen from the film that Jet Li’s boldness and ferocity revealed in the paper-making section seems to be venting his dissatisfaction to the crew. Although these grievances have really happened, they can’t hide Liu Jialiang’s great achievements in China Kung Fu films.

In Tsui Hark’s films, Liu Jialiang also played an important role. Although they had great differences when they partnered with Tsui Hark in the early days, Liu Jialiang’s fighting style as always was incompatible with Tsui Hark’s. Tsui Hark advocated ethereal art and paid attention to visual beauty, so he abandoned Liu Jialiang and used Yuan Heping. However, when they got back together in Seven Swords, Tsui Hark made Liu Jialiang play a realistic fighting design thoroughly in the film, which made people see that kind of realistic and exciting close combat in Seven Swords.

Liu Jialiang has been in the business for several decades, insisting on his original intention and never forgetting his original intention. He has carried the traditional and real martial arts through to the end and truly carried forward China’s martial arts, which is really worthy of our respect. Liu Jialiang passed away in the middle of 13th year. His life was wonderful, bumpy, brilliant and bitter, but in any case, as a master of China Wushu, he is always worth remembering.

Editor in charge:

　　Chengdu International Automobile Exhibition 2023 will officially kick off on August 25th in West China International Expo City. As the most important international auto show in Southwest China, it has always been a stage for major auto brands to "show their muscles". As the representative of China’s own brand, Chery Group is also ready to go. Four brands, Chery, Xingtu, Jietu and iCAR, will jointly participate in the exhibition with more than 30 heavy models, showing strong brand upward potential.

　　As of August 20th, Chery’s cumulative sales volume has exceeded 1 million vehicles this year, running out of the "acceleration" again, two months ahead of last year’s million sales volume. Chery Group has achieved "double growth" from the same period of last month under the background of "double decline" from the same period of last month, continuing the strong trend of sprinting sales to new highs for months since this year. What surprises will Chery bring us at this Chengdu Auto Show? Let’s take the lead and have a quick look!

Chery Group landed at Chengdu Auto Show with four major brands.

　　The ultimate price of oil and electricity is higher than that of the new Tiggo 7 PLUS.

　　At this year’s auto show, Chery brand will bring its three major series and new energy heavy models to the show. In addition to the Tiggo 9, Arrizo 8 high-energy version and the newly-launched Exploration 06, the Tiggo 7 family will also welcome new models to market, and consolidate the new benchmark of A-class SUV value with its advanced scientific and technological strength. As the most successful model sequence of Chery brand, the Tiggo series quickly responds to iterations. At this auto show, two models, the Tiggo 7 PLUS Champion Edition and the Tiggo 7 New Energy Champion Edition, will be launched, with fuel+hybrid two-line force.

Tiggo 8 New Energy Champion Edition+Tiggo 7 New Energy Champion Edition

　　The Tiggo 7 New Energy Champion Edition, which will be listed at this Chengdu Auto Show, has three core advantages: super electric hybrid, super safety and super smart enjoyment. At the same time, it expands the vehicle lineup, and creates a super high price-to-performance ratio with the same-level leading electric hybrid technology, the same-level leading intelligent cockpit, the same-level super-high active and passive safety standards, and the only vehicle in the industry and the three-power lifetime warranty, which brings users more diversified new energy car purchase options. With the launch of the Chery Tiggo 8 New Energy Champion Edition and the Tiggo 7 New Energy Champion Edition, Chery Automobile will formally form a Chery hybrid Gemini layout consisting of the Tiggo 8 New Energy Champion Edition and the Tiggo 7 New Energy Champion Edition, covering the mainstream electric hybrid market within 150,000 in an all-round way, and satisfying users’ travel with a diversified vehicle lineup.

　　The new generation of Tiggo 7 PLUS Champion Edition is positioned as "the value benchmark of 100,000-class SUV", which is specially designed for "Lohas Youth". It continues the "three highs" product gene with high value, high value and high safety of the Tiggo 7 PLUS model, and is equipped with the fourth-generation 1.5TGDI engine of Chery Kunpeng Power for the first time, and it has the only super start in its class, with an acceleration of 0-60km/h of only 3.8s and a fuel consumption of only 6.58L per 100 km. With the launch of the Champion Edition, the new generation of Tiggo 7 PLUS Champion Edition family will refresh the industry value benchmark with the brand-new "the strongest Kunpeng dual-power combination of the same class", further high price-performance ratio and richer product lineup, and become a must-have item for users to travel. Not only can it provide more choices for users to travel, but it will also help more young users to easily start a beautiful car life with Chery’s fourth-generation ACTECO engine and the ultra-high price-performance ratio of "increasing the quantity without increasing the price".

A new generation of Tiggo 7 PLUS Champion Edition

　　Leading high-end travel, Star Road, Eta Ursae Majoris Flying Fish Edition and Star Era ET to open "Super Comfort, New Experience"

　　As the "spire" of Chery Pyramid, Xingtu is committed to bringing intelligent, luxurious and energetic high-end travel experience to the new middle class in the city. In 2023, Starway, which entered the era of 2.0, ran hard in an all-round way and accelerated the drawing of the future "445" product matrix blueprint. At the Chengdu Auto Show, the launch of Eta Ursae Majoris Flying Fish Edition and the launch of Star Era ET interior will be the two most important star attractions of Star Road booth. In addition, Star Era ES, which will be launched in the fourth quarter, as well as a new generation of moon-hunting, a new generation of Lingyun and wind-chasing PHEV, will all debut, and a super comfortable and new experience journey will soon set sail happily.

　　Since its listing in February, Eta Ursae Majoris has launched a "luxury affirmative action" campaign in the 200,000-yuan SUV market with a user value twice the retail price. Among many highly competitive functions, Flying Fish Super Chassis accounts for 67% of car purchases, which has won unanimous praise from users. Eta Ursae Majoris Feiyu Edition will continue to decentralize this function, and at the same time, it will add a new powertrain equipped with 2.0T+ Aisin 8AT to carry out luxury equality to the end.

Eta Ursae Majoris Flying Fish Edition

　　As the first high-end electric SUV in Star Age, Star Age ET adheres to the aesthetic concept of "super comfortable home", takes "warmth, comfort, luxury and elegance" as the design theme, adopts indoor home design techniques, and creates a modern sense of luxury and luxury through the collision of lights, real wood and real aluminum. Create a super comfortable 6A healthy cockpit that leads the industry for users, and make the car a cockpit and a second home.

Xingjiyuan ET

　　Focus on the travel scene and shake it. Jietu travelers will start pre-sale

　　Jietu Automobile focuses on the "Travel+"market segment, builds products with the concepts of scene, ecology and platform, and also builds a more perfect travel ecology and product matrix. It is understood that Jietu Automobile will open the pre-sale of Jietu travelers at Chengdu Auto Show. The pre-sale models include 1.5T and 2.0T power models. Jietu travelers adopt the design language of "the way of vertical and horizontal", showing the beauty of toughness. The posture of the whole vehicle is powerful, the suspended roof is equipped with luggage rack, and the generous black broken-line wheel arch and large-size rim are extremely off-road temperament. The small schoolbag at the tail is a classic design of off-road SUV. The rear taillights set vertically on both sides are wrapped in a black frame, and the shape of the rear bumper echoes the front face.

Jietu traveler

　　Of course, Jetway travelers are not only domineering in appearance, but also unambiguous in lining. The new car is equipped with the industry’s first XWD fully automatic intelligent four-wheel drive system, which brings very strong grip, high passability and ability to get out of trouble. With the empowerment of Borgwarner’s sixth-generation torque manager and intelligent differential lock, TA can win both urban roads and outdoor cross-country.

　　Intellectual fun playmates make a stunning appearance in iCAR 03 and join hands with millions of users to "dare to be fun"

　　Since the official release of "New Power" brand iCAR, Chery’s layout on the new energy track has been further accelerated, and at the same time, it has constantly challenged its own limits, innovated its marketing methods, and launched a number of user co-creation activities including appearance co-creation and i-VA virtual people, so as to establish a deeper emotional and value resonance with users and realize mutual two-way travel. At this auto show, iCAR will join hands with its vanguard iCAR 03 to make a stunning appearance, and the interior of the "intellectual playmate" SUV will usher in the first real car exposure! It is worth looking forward to that iCAR 03 will also join hands with a number of heavyweight big coffees to launch "iCAR 03′ s first China car crowdfunding early-adopter activity — — Millions of users and millions of kilometers long test ceremony, dare to play in the wild, specially for chasing new young people! There is also a mysterious modified car of "landing on Mars", which is worth finding out!

iCAR 03

　　At this Chengdu Auto Show, eQ7, which was popular before it went on the market, will also make a heavy debut. As the first home pure electric SUV built by China’s first aluminum-based lightweight platform, eQ7 was born for real travel scenes of home users, bringing a new definition of home pure electric SUV. At the same time, the familiar QQ ice cream, small ants and other models will also be renewed, Q moving Rongcheng.

　　Enjoy Rongcheng intelligently and see the future! From August 25th to September 3rd, four brands, Chery, Xingtu, Jietu and iCAR, will bring more than 30 heavy-duty models to Chengdu West China International Expo City, and come to Hall 5, H501 Chery booth to experience brand-new models, explore pioneering technology, and have many interesting ways to play. (Photo: provided by Chery Automobile)

　　Recently, we learned from the official that the new Volvo XC90 will be launched on September 4. As a mid-term model, the new car will continue to launch the ordinary version and R-Design ** style models. In addition to the appearance details, some configurations of the new car have also been upgraded. For example, the new car adds T *** Drive Zhiyi ** 7-seat model.

　　The new XC90 (Parameters | Inquiry) offers two exterior style models. Among them, the regular version only adjusts some front face details compared with the current model, such as the straight waterfall center net with chrome decoration, the air inlet decoration on both sides of the bumper, and cancels the fog lamp at the bottom of the bumper.

　　In terms of interior, the new XC90 will adopt the interior design that retains the current model of the current model. The overseas version will offer 5, 6 (2 + 2 + 2), 7 (2 + 3 + 2) and deluxe 4-seat models. At the same time, the new car has also been upgraded in active safety configuration. It includes the city safety and blind spot monitoring information system, the warning of opposite lanes, and the intersection warning system with automatic braking. The automatic braking function of the city safety system can effectively identify pedestrians, bicycles and large animals. In addition, the new car will also offer the CLEANZONE clean cockpit (plus the dual-effect enhanced air evolution system, the remote cockpit purification system, and the embedded AQI air quality real-time monitoring system), as well as the upgrade of the Intellisafe intelligent safety system.

　　In terms of power, the new car is expected to follow the setting of the current model. As a reference, the current mid-size XC90 T5 is equipped with a 2.0T turbocharged engine with a maximum power of 254 horsepower and a peak torque of 350 Nm; the T6 model is equipped with a 2.0T mechanical + turbocharged engine with a maximum power of 320 horsepower and a peak torque of 400 Nm; the T8 model is equipped with a plug-in system composed of a 2.0T dual-supercharged engine and dual motors, with a combined maximum power of 408 horsepower and a peak torque of 640 Nm.

　　(Original title: "The first person in the college entrance examination for the blind" Zhang Yaodong: I am preparing for the postgraduate entrance examination, "Someone must go ahead")

　　On the morning of May 23rd, in the course of synopsis of the golden chamber, Zhang Yaodong read a book with an electronic visual aid while listening to the lecture. The pictures in this article are all from The Paper reporter Zhu Ying

　　On June 7, 2014, the first day of the college entrance examination, the 86 th examination room of Tianshui No.6 Middle School in Gansu Province. 2 invigilators and 1 candidate.

　　Zhang Yaodong sat in the first row near the window on the left, with a white desk lamp and a red electronic sight aid on the table. There is a stack of 68-page-thick papers in front of me.

　　He picked up the visual aid and put it on the test paper. His left eye was closed, his right eye was widened, and his head was less than 5 cm away from the visual aid.

　　This is the college entrance examination for blind Zhang Yaodong alone.

　　Zhang Yaodong read with an electronic visual aid while listening to the class.

In 2014, it was called "the first year of college entrance examination for the blind".

　　On March 28th, 2014, the Ministry of Education issued a document, "When blind people take the exam, provide blind candidates with Braille papers, electronic papers or special staff to assist them", which opened the door for blind people to take the general college entrance examination. At that time, among the more than 9.3 million students who took the national college entrance examination, only three were blind. Zhang Yaodong was admitted to Hubei University of Traditional Chinese Medicine with a score of 558, becoming the first blind person in China who passed the national unified examination and was admitted to the university.

　　Teachers and classmates regard him as an "inspirational model" and a "star classmate" and praise him: "You have created a miracle for us."

　　Zhang Yaodong thought it was not a miracle, but something that his parents and he did together.

　　The left eye is blind, and the right eye has a visual acuity of 0.02. Standing a step away from the eye chart, Zhang Yaodong can only see the largest letters. Since he was a child, he has lived in a foggy world. He can see colors and outlines, but he can’t tear off the thick veil that is covered in front of him.

　　Father Zhang Jian and mother Li Xiaotao tried their best to make their son live like a normal person. They taught him to walk and eat, fought for his right to go to school and sent him to college step by step.

　　Zhang Yaodong understands the hardships of his parents, but he doesn’t want to talk about these sorrows. "I dare not think about it, but I feel uncomfortable when I think about it.". He repeatedly said: "If you can’t get it right, who can you live up to?" Everyone is sorry. "

　　Whenever asked what kind of person he thinks he is, he will blurt out: normal.

　　Should I repay the loan in advance? Photo courtesy of vision china

　　With the change of the property market, more and more people repay their loans in advance, and even there are long queues for this purpose, and many young people have joined them. Of course, the choice of early repayment is to cut interest rates, but experts remind that "early repayment can not blindly follow the trend." We should repay the loan rationally, not only considering our own affordability, but also considering the future changes in mortgage interest rates and making comprehensive judgments. Some experts also suggested: reduce the interest rate of stock loans or allow buyers to convert fixed interest rates into floating interest rates.

　　— — — — — — — — — —

　　The "loan repayment tide" of property buyers in advance is intensifying.

　　At 0:00 on February 1st, Chang Wei, a post-90s individual industrial and commercial household from Xuzhou, Jiangsu, once again stared intently at the mobile banking App page of a state-owned bank, refreshing, clicking and refreshing … … This has been repeated many times, but I still didn’t grab the February prepayment quota issued by the bank. Chang Wei said, "I waited until 0:30, but it seems that there is no quota around 0:10."

　　Originally, Mr. Huang, a post-90 s lawyer who lives in Wuhan, has successfully made an appointment for early repayment. However, only three days before the repayment date, he was informed by the bank that he could not repay.

　　They are just the "microcosm" of the difficulty for buyers to repay loans in advance. On social platforms, many property buyers shared their experience of making an appointment for prepayment, among which many people have scheduled the repayment date to September this year.

　　Bank employees have to queue up to repay loans in advance.

　　Chang Wei is not on a whim to repay the mortgage in advance. In the past two years, he has always had this idea. During the epidemic, his income was halved and unstable. Among them, his income was zero for three months, but he never dared to break the loan, which also made him want to repay the loan in advance.

　　In 2018, Chang Wei took out his savings, plus 1.1 million yuan from his parents, and borrowed 300,000 yuan from the bank at a loan interest rate of 5.7% before buying a wedding room. Now, Chang Wei’s mortgage principal is more than 260,000 yuan, and most of the tens of thousands of yuan paid in front are interest, and the principal only accounts for a small part. According to the contract, it will be another four years before the principal part of the monthly repayment will exceed the interest. He said, "This means that I have to work for the bank for another four years."

　　He decided to use the savings of 200,000 yuan to repay the loan, shortening the loan period of the remaining 60,000 yuan to 36 months, and then he only needed to pay more than 5,000 yuan of interest. "Compared with the original interest of 160,000 yuan, this is a fraction."

　　Years ago, Chang Wei saw on the mobile banking App that he could apply for early repayment, but the amount of early repayment after the year showed that it was full. When he went to the bank outlet, he saw a notice posted at the outlet about the need to make an appointment at the bank counter to repay the mortgage in advance, which read: "Our bank will arrange the customer to repay the loan in advance according to the requirements of the national loan scale control (usually in about 3 months)".

　　"This time, I have to pay more interest to the bank." Fortunately, Chang Wei successfully made an appointment to repay the loan in May this year. However, the reply from the staff of the bank outlets still left him with no bottom. "The staff asked me to come early in May, and the sooner I got more stable."

　　Just because you make a successful appointment to repay in advance does not mean that you can repay successfully. At the beginning of this year, Mr. Huang and his wife collected 450,000 yuan from relatives and friends and prepared to repay the mortgage in advance. On January 5th, he made an appointment at a bank outlet for repayment on February 6th. However, on February 3, he was told by the bank that the internal policy of the bank was adjusted, and the offline repayment window was closed, waiting for online approval, and the time was uncertain. He asked the account manager about the specific content of the bank’s internal policy, and the account manager said, "I don’t know."

　　For the above situation, the bank account manager asked Mr. Huang to find his own channel feedback. So, he complained to the relevant authorities and the bank consumer protection office.

　　Prior to this, Mr. Huang Applied for early repayment through the mobile banking app, indicating that he "failed to meet the repayment conditions". In fact, according to the contract, the repayment period is over 12 months, the repayment is at least 30,000 yuan in advance, and an appointment is made 30 days in advance, and the repayment can be made after approval by the bank. He has met these conditions. The online channel couldn’t get through, so he had to switch to the offline channel. Mr. Huang didn’t expect the road to repayment to be full of difficulties, as if he were going through "eighty-one difficult".

　　In view of the difficulty for some property buyers to repay loans, the reporter consulted the staff of the credit department of a provincial branch of a state-owned bank as a borrower, and said that the current area can make an appointment online, but it needs to be queued, which is estimated to be in April and May. He revealed to the reporter of China Youth Daily and China Youth Network that the bank’s control quota is fixed every month, and it will be gone when it is used up.

　　The bank staff also said that the income expectation of investment and financial management is not ideal now, and many people are not willing to put their money in the bank. "Our colleagues are ready to repay the loan in advance, and they are all waiting in line." Now there is no other way but to queue up. "Apply early, queue up early and repay the loan early," he said.

　　Don’t want to work for a bank?

　　"I don’t want to work for the bank." This is a common answer given by many property buyers about why to repay the loan in advance. They raise funds in different ways. Some people redeem their investments, some borrow money from relatives and friends, some people sell precious metals such as gold in their homes to repay their loans, and some people "operate" their mortgages into business loans through some housing agencies, reducing the mortgage interest rate … …

　　Since buying a three-bedroom apartment in Wuhan at the end of 2021, Mr. Huang and his wife have lived a life of "frugality". As long as they have money, they will save up to pay back the mortgage. Mr. Huang remembers that when they bought a house, they borrowed 1.36 million yuan in the form of "equal principal and interest". At that time, the mortgage interest rate was 5.78%, which was at a high level. They needed to repay 7963 yuan every month. He said, "We just need to live by ourselves and buy it at (mortgage) ‘ Peak ’ I also recognized it. "

　　At present, they have paid it back for 13 months, and the repayment amount has exceeded 100,000 yuan, but the principal is only about 18,000 yuan, and the rest is interest. Originally, Mr. Huang hoped to pay back 450,000 yuan before February 14 this year, but it was blocked. The interest of 450,000 yuan a day was 35 yuan, "one month’s interest is enough to pay one month’s heating bill". At present, he is still waiting for further feedback on the complaint. He is going to send a lawyer’s letter to the bank at the same time. "It is true that the bank defaulted first."

　　After 90, Zhang Ran said that the mortgage interest rate was 6.4% when she bought a house in Kunshan, Jiangsu a few years ago. At present, the mortgage interest rate in many areas has dropped to 3.8%. Today, she found that only a few hundred yuan of the monthly repayment amount of more than 2,500 yuan is the principal, and the interest actually exceeds 2,000 yuan.

　　In order to pay off the loan as soon as possible and engage in human resources work, Zhang Ran also works as a part-time teacher. In July last year, after she paid off the debts owed to her relatives, she repaid the 100,000 yuan she had saved to the mortgage. At that time, the repayment was smooth. She plans to continue saving money and pay off the loan in advance in two or three years, which can save more than 300 thousand yuan. "I only have one goal now, which is to repay the loan."

　　At the beginning of buying a house, Shasha, a 24-year-old sales assistant working in Shanghai, and her boyfriend were ready to repay the loan in advance at a constant rate to decompress for the future. In March 2021, Shasha and her boyfriend bought a 145-square-meter house with a loan of 1.22 million yuan in Kunshan, Jiangsu, and started a life of "A Tale of Two Cities". At that time, the mortgage interest rate reached 5.7%, and they needed to pay back more than 7,100 yuan per month, of which only about 1,300 yuan was the principal and the rest was all interest. She calculated an account, and if she repays according to the contract, she will have to pay more than 1.3 million yuan in interest in 30 years, which has exceeded the principal. She sighed, "The mortgage interest rate is too high."

　　In addition to the mortgage, the two will also give a total of 4,000 yuan in alimony to the elderly on both sides every month. At the same time, considering the uncertainty of career development and the cost of childbearing and education for future children, the future development of the industry is uncertain, and they choose to pay back 200,000 yuan every year. Last August, they repaid the principal of 200,000 yuan in advance.

　　In January this year, Shasha successfully made an appointment for early repayment again, because the bank made the payment the next month and she was still waiting for the deduction. In fact, Shasha has also considered converting mortgage loans into business loans to reduce mortgage interest rates. Some intermediaries have contacted them and said that they can provide "bridge payment" to help them apply for business loans. Finally, she gave up because she was worried that the risk was too great.

　　As a 19-year-old veteran in the real estate industry, Zhao Hengcheng, the manager of the "80-year-old house talk" from the media, also observed that some people will choose to convert their mortgages into business loans, that is, buyers will pay off their mortgages in advance at one time, and then mortgage their properties through the company to make loans, and the loan interest rate can be reduced to 3.7%. "In fact, there are many people in the market who take this as ‘ Gap ’ The intermediary, ‘ Bewitch ’ Everyone turned the mortgage into a business loan. "

　　However, it is clear that it is illegal for consumers to use "bridge funds" to settle their mortgages and then go to the bank to apply for operating loans to return the bridge funds. In view of the behavior of some illegal intermediaries to induce consumers to replace their mortgages with business loans, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission official website had previously issued a reminder that this kind of operation hides the hidden dangers of breach of contract, the trap of high fees, the impact on personal credit information, the break of capital chain, and the violation of information security.

　　A staff member of the credit department of a state-owned bank said that banks will often check similar situations, and non-enterprise operators illegally switch to operating loans, which has certain default risks and legal risks. "If consumers are found to have misappropriated loans, they can recover the loans in advance."

　　Why is it difficult to repay the loan in advance?

　　Why is it difficult for ordinary people to repay loans in advance?

　　Li Yujia, chief researcher of Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, pointed out that in recent years, the interest rate of bank loans to the real economy has dropped significantly, dropping by 34 basis points in 2022. Among them, in order to reduce the financing cost of small and medium-sized enterprises, the support for small and medium-sized micro-loan enterprises with lower loan interest rates should be maintained at a high level. As a result, mortgage is a high-quality asset for banks.

　　In 2022, the growth rate of individual housing loans declined. On February 3rd, the Statistical Report on Loan Investment of Financial Institutions in the Fourth Quarter of 2022 released by the People’s Bank of China showed that the balance of personal housing loans at the end of last year was 38.8 trillion yuan, up 1.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 10 percentage points lower than that at the end of last year. Li Yujia explained that in 2022, the application for incremental mortgage was declining. In the part of stock mortgage, buyers demanded to repay loans in advance, and the bank’s income was naturally affected.

　　Li Yujia has been paying attention to the "tide of repaying loans in advance". He found that in the first half of 2021, ordinary people were still "waiting in line for loans", but now they are "waiting in line for loans to be repaid". For more than a year, such a big contrast occurred, and the background was that the expectations of ordinary people for the property market reversed.

　　In January this year, the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in 2022, the sales of commercial housing was 13.3308 trillion yuan, down 26.7% year-on-year. In Li Yujia’s view, in the past, people generally believed that house prices would rise, and the return on assets was far greater than the cost of raising mortgage interest rates. Nowadays, after the people’s expectations of housing prices are reversed, the cost of the house is fully manifested and they are more sensitive to the mortgage interest rate. The continuous downward adjustment of mortgage interest rate is one of the reasons why ordinary people repay loans in advance. At present, mortgage interest rates in dozens of cities have entered the era of "3%". In addition, some cities have phased out the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate.

　　Professor capital university of economics and business and Zhao Xiuchi, vice-president and secretary-general of Beijing Real Estate Law Society, pointed out that mortgage contracts have a long term and are calculated with compound interest. Small changes in interest rates have a great impact on the borrower’s repayment burden, and it is understandable for consumers to reduce expenditure and increase income. In addition, many people chose a fixed interest rate when the interest rate of stock loans was converted. Now they find that the market interest rate is low, and they have suffered. Repaying the loan in advance is also a kind of compensation or correction.

　　Zhao Xiuchi also observed that some people choose to repay the loan in advance, and then apply for a loan with a lower interest rate. Few people stop lending after the real repayment. Zhao Xiuchi explained that the main reason was that the previous stock loan chose a fixed interest rate when the interest rate was converted, and its contract interest rate could not decrease with the decrease of the loan market quoted interest rate (LPR), so it was necessary to repay the loan in advance before applying for the loan to enjoy the current low market interest rate. Another reason is that the interest rate of the borrower’s mortgage contract is higher than the loan interest rate of small and medium-sized enterprises, and buyers may "detour" the loan.

　　"At present, ordinary people are not ‘ Retaliation ’ Pay back the mortgage. " Zhao Hengcheng believes that at present, the rate of return on financial investment is decreasing, and people with deposits lack good investment channels. At the same time, they find that the income brought by real estate is obviously lower than expected, and repaying loans in advance is a "timely stop loss" to a certain extent.

　　In Zhao Hengcheng’s view, banks are also one of the "pushing hands" of the "early repayment tide". Banks set many restrictive conditions for repaying loans in advance, such as paying liquidated damages, closing online channels, and long queues. He explained, "This restriction of banks will not only reduce everyone’s willingness to repay, but will stimulate everyone’s willingness to repay. Many people will have an idea of opposing interests: ‘ The more banks do this, the more worried they are about my repayment, and the more they will earn my interest, so they have to pay it back. ’”

　　In view of some repayment restrictions of banks, Zhao Xiuchi believes that according to the loan contract, early repayment by buyers will disrupt the bank’s capital plan, and it is normal for banks to charge a certain amount of liquidated damages, but there should be clear terms in the loan contract. She also pointed out that buyers have to wait a long time for prepayment, but there are more prepayment at present, so banks should improve their work efficiency and should not delay borrowers’ prepayment under an excuse.

　　Experts suggest lowering the interest rate of stock mortgage.

　　At present, many people are waiting to see whether to repay the loan in advance. In fact, not everyone is suitable for repaying loans in advance, and many experts call for "rational repayment".

　　Zhao Hengcheng pointed out that at present, these types of people are more suitable for repaying loans in advance. First, they have funds in their hands, but they have not found a good investment channel; Second, people with higher mortgage interest rates, especially those who are above 6% or even close to 7%; Third, for people with short repayment period, interest often accounts for the main part in the early repayment. He also pointed out that if the buyers have repaid the loan for more than a certain period of time, the interest part of the outstanding loan is very limited, and early repayment will not greatly reduce the cost of using funds.

　　At present, calculating how to repay the loan in advance is more cost-effective and has become a "compulsory course" for many property buyers. Generally speaking, there are three modes of prepayment, namely, prepayment in full, prepayment in part with the same loan term, and prepayment in part with shortened loan term. How much interest can be saved by repaying the loan in advance has a great relationship with the loan amount, prepayment ability, mortgage interest rate and repayment period of the buyers.

　　For example, property buyers borrow 1 million yuan from the bank at a loan interest rate of 4.3%, and the loan period is 30 years. Among them, according to the repayment method of equal principal and interest, they need to repay 4,948.71 yuan every month, with a total repayment amount of 1,781,500 yuan. Many banks stipulate that buyers can only repay in advance after one year. According to the calculation of repayment for 13 months, early repayment will be started in February this year, and one-time repayment can save 731,800 yuan in interest. If you choose to repay 200,000 yuan in advance and the repayment period remains unchanged, you can save 149,200 yuan by choosing the repayment method of equal principal and interest in the future, and you can save 246,600 yuan by choosing the method of average capital. Buyers still pay 200,000 yuan in advance, and the monthly payment amount remains unchanged. If the repayment period is shortened to 10 years, the repayment method with equal principal and interest will save 550,600 yuan, and if the repayment method in average capital is selected, the interest will be saved 562,600 yuan.

　　If the home buyers have a long repayment time, the interest that can be saved will also change obviously. Still under the above conditions, the buyer has already paid off the loan for 8 years and 1 month, so paying off in advance at one time can save 456,500 yuan; If 200,000 yuan is repaid in advance and the repayment period is shortened to 10 years, 307,900 yuan can be saved by choosing the same principal and interest, and 317,700 yuan can be saved by choosing average capital.

　　"Repaying the loan in advance can’t blindly follow the trend." Zhao Xiuchi also pointed out that the loan contracts of homebuyers vary widely, which need specific analysis. From a personal point of view, it is really necessary to repay the loan rationally, not only considering one’s affordability, but also considering the future changes in mortgage interest rates and making a comprehensive judgment.

　　Many people in the industry and experts told reporters that more people choose to repay in advance in order to cut interest rates. In this regard, some experts suggested: reduce the interest rate of existing loans or allow buyers to convert fixed interest rates into floating interest rates.

　　"As long as the mortgage interest rate is higher than the wealth management interest rate, as long as the house price is still falling and the residents expect the house price to fall, the motivation to repay the loan in advance will always exist." Li Yujia predicts that in the future, more cities will cancel the lower limit of mortgage interest rate, especially those with falling house prices. On the one hand, it is to shrink the inversion between mortgage interest rate and wealth management interest rate; On the other hand, it is to reduce the mortgage interest rate to cushion the decline in house prices. At the same time, the recent property market policy has turned more to demand-side bail-out, with the aim of encouraging everyone to buy houses and alleviating the expectation of falling house prices.

　　In addition, Zhao Xiuchi also suggested that, from the perspective of national policy, buyers who originally chose a fixed interest rate for existing loans should be allowed to switch to a floating interest rate based on LPR.

　　(At the request of the interviewee, Chang Wei, Zhang Ran and Sha Sha are pseudonyms)

　　Zhongqingbao Zhongqingwang Trainee Reporter Zhao Limei Jia Jiye