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The spring of artificial intelligence creation has come, and the ＂hidden rules＂ of ancient poetry are taught by computer.

　　Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, March 12th Special feature: The spring of artificial intelligence creation is coming.

　　Xinhua News Agency reporter Peng Qian Liu Si

　　"Early spring rain Chu Qing, willow filar silk caught the shore warbler. The painting boat is full of smoke and waves, and the small bridge is light. "

　　Who would have thought that this is a poem created by artificial intelligence with "early spring" as the key word. The author "Nine Songs" was developed by a student team led by Professor Sun Maosong of Tsinghua University Computer Science and Technology Department for three years.

　　Xiao Bing, Microsoft’s chat robot, "narrowly beat" human opponents with a Chinese-style song "Peach Blossom Dream" in the variety show "Wit". When the singer sings such an archaic sentence as "In the boundless night rain, the past is like the wind, the peach blossoms in the ear laugh at the spring breeze, and you and I meet in the dream", many viewers think that this is made by human beings.

　　The spring of writing poetry, composing music, painting and artificial intelligence has come quietly … …

　　Technically, "familiar with 300 Tang poems"

　　Zhou Ming, vice president of Microsoft Asia Research Institute, is a literary lover. He and the research team taught Xiao Bing to write modern poetry, and composing music is a new skill.

　　Zhou Ming said that neural machine translation, chatting robot, reading comprehension and creation are the four main aspects of the application of natural language processing technology, and the difficulty is gradually increasing. Creation is at the top of the pyramid and it is the most difficult to break through.

　　"In the beginning, people couldn’t find how to model creation because it was emotional. Writing poems and writing lyrics are all things with flying literary talents and sudden inspiration, which are difficult to capture. " He said. Thanks to the progress of deep learning and neural network technology in recent years, artificial intelligence creation has won many brilliant achievements.

　　Zhou Ming introduced that writing songs by Xiao Bing is a process of "encoding and decoding". The researchers first trained artificial intelligence robots with popular songs. After sufficient training, you can start writing: after inputting the song theme in the form of keywords, it will be coded into a language that artificial intelligence can understand, and the robot will decode and output it in a way that people can understand, becoming a lyric; Then combine this word with the original keyword as a new input, and you can get the second sentence, and so on to get the whole song word. Similarly, you can also input lyrics and translate them into music scores, that is, you can regard music scores as natural languages, thus completing computer lyrics and music scores.

　　"Nine Songs" learning to write poetry is also "familiar with 300 Tang poems, and you can recite them even if you can’t write poetry".

　　Yi Xiaoyuan, the founder of "Nine Songs" and a graduate student in Tsinghua University, has input more than 300,000 ancient poems since the Tang Dynasty as a corpus, and used the deep learning model to make computer learning. In addition to the rules for leveling and rhyming poems, no artificial rules are given, but computers are allowed to learn the "hidden rules" in ancient poems themselves.

　　"We don’t know the rules of how computers make such poems," said Sun Maosong, which is a "black box" phenomenon of deep learning. In his view, each ancient poem is like a necklace, and the beads on the necklace are words. In the deep learning model, the necklace is completely broken up, and then the implicit association between each bead and other beads is given different weights through automatic learning. When writing a poem, put different beads back into a new necklace.

　　The ancients wrote poems mostly to express their feelings, and the style was sad, which also made the poems written by "Nine Songs" somewhat "sad for spring and autumn". The team hopes to make the "Nine Songs" more positive by strengthening the training of some relaxed emotional samples. In addition, how to write a longer poem on the basis of ensuring the consistency of the whole poem is also a new challenge.

　　In artistic conception, "Kung Fu is beyond poetry"

　　In addition to writing poems and composing music, artificial intelligence has evolved new skills such as writing novels and painting. The science fiction novel "The Day when a Computer Writes a Novel" created by artificial intelligence developed in Japan deceived all human judges and was successfully shortlisted for the Japanese Fiction Literature Award. Google artificial intelligence can also create paintings, and some paintings have been sold at a high price of $8,000.

　　Artificial intelligence has defeated human beings in the fields of chess and cards, video games, etc. Does the latest progress in the field of artistic creation mean that it is not far from surpassing human beings in this respect?

　　Zhou Ming believes that at present, artificial intelligence creation is only based on the imitation of big data, which is far from the creative intelligence of real human beings. "There is not enough data for training artificial intelligence creation, such as the data for composing lyrics; Secondly, the inspiration is not enough, because the data alone is just a follower, writing words and composing music are familiar, and there is no feeling of sudden inspiration in generate. "

　　In Sun Maosong’s view, at present, artificial intelligence creation is a limited creativity, which theoretically does not exceed the creative space unconsciously defined by predecessors in the practice of poetry creation for thousands of years. The ancients wrote poetry as "Kung Fu is beyond poetry", often based on experience, with content and artistic conception, but it is difficult for machines to "express their aspirations" or "express their feelings through scenery" for the time being.

　　Experts believe that the fear that artificial intelligence surpasses human beings in the field of creation is alarmist. "In areas that need deep connotation or inspiration, such as music creation, poetry and prose, I personally think that machines are basically unlikely to reach the state of people, but they will assist people’s creation." Zhou Ming said.

　　However, artificial intelligence can improve the efficiency of professional creators. "If you can’t think of using a word when writing, artificial intelligence will think of a word for you and let you find that you can write like this." For ordinary people, artificial intelligence creation systems such as "Nine Songs" can lower the threshold of creation and realize the dream that "everyone can be a poet, painter or musician".

　　Sun Maosong said that the team plans to upgrade the "Nine Songs" system in the future, so that it can judge the quality of people’s poems, such as whether there are mistakes in rhyme and level tone, whether words are unsatisfactory or sentences are incomplete, and help people improve their creative skills; You can also conduct "humanistic calculation" and quantitative analysis and research on ancient documents through big data.

　　In addition to the creation itself, the study of machine creation can also bring unexpected benefits to other fields of artificial intelligence, and open up innovation in many fields and interdisciplinary subjects.

　　"Before letting Xiao Bing learn music creation, we never thought that music can also be processed by natural language technology," Zhou Ming said. "So once the natural language breaks through, it can drive the breakthrough of cognitive intelligence and the whole artificial intelligence, and there will be many scenes that were unimaginable before."

Computer seal engraving is easy to counterfeit. Hand seal engraving is on the verge of extinction (Figure)

Computer engraving is popular, and the business of seal carvers is slow.

　　This newspaper (reporter Shi Shanwei photographed Qin Yang) only needs a carving knife to put the names, flowers, birds, insects and fish into the square inch. Xiang Songqiu, who lives in Laoxiguan, Guangzhou, has been in business for 50 years for three generations. Although he is famous far and near, he can’t get a single business in January. Computer engraving is all over the street, and a seal can be done in one minute, which is convenient and at the same time, it also makes the fake official seal flood and hard to prevent. Manual seal cutting is unrepeatable, but few people care about it, and this traditional craft is facing extinction.

　　Fifty years into the business, carving official seals to become famous.

　　In Heping West Road, Liwan District, I saw a sign of "Autumn Carving" on the roadside. Walking up the narrow staircase to the second floor is Xiang Songqiu’s living room, and a wooden table in the corner is his workbench.

　　Xiang Songqiu, 63, is the third generation descendant of Xiang Jia’s seal cutting, and Yin Chuang, the wooden table, was handed down by his ancestors. His uncle Xiang Xinnan was a famous stone engraver in Guangxu period of Qing Dynasty, and his father Xiang Shaonan was also a minor famous stone engraver. He worked as an artist for more than 80 years and carved seals for many celebrities and politicians. Xiang Songqiu entered the Red Seal Engraving Factory in Guangzhou on January 1, 1960, and has been in the business for 50 years.

　　"Horn, ivory, jade, pear wood, boxwood, pen wood … all can be used for engraving, but different materials need different carving knives." Talking about this craft, Xiang Songqiu gushed.

　　Not only is Xiang Songqiu well-known in the industry, but he has also been interviewed by many English media, and the British and German consuls in Guangzhou have also come to him to carve seals. Compared with his predecessors, he also carved the zodiac, flowers, birds, insects and fish into it when carving leisure chapters. Once a man asked all over Guangzhou to engrave his name in a painting, but his peers said that he could not engrave it. Finally, he found Master Xiang, and this seal became his masterpiece.

　　After 50 years in the business, Xiang Songqiu is best at carving official seals. Before the reform and opening up, many banks, police stations and other government departments in Guangzhou appointed him to engrave the seal. "The business of engraving can also reflect the ups and downs of the economy. The 1980 s was the golden age of engraving." Xiang Songqiu recalled that at most, he took over thousands of orders to engrave the company’s official seal in a month.

　　Computer engraving "encourages" fake official seal fraud

　　However, in the late 1990s, computer engraving began to rise because of its low price and high speed, which quickly occupied the market. Master Xiang’s business has plummeted, and now there are so many "autumn engravings" that he can’t get a single business for a month at the worst.

　　"Computer engraving is the same and easy to counterfeit." Xiang Songqiu said that the hand-carved chapter is unrepeatable, and the fake chapter can be known at a glance. Xiang Songqiu plans to cooperate with a computer engraving shop.

　　(Source: Guangzhou Daily)

Directly hit the Bangkok Auto Show ｜ Hongri’s many new cars appeared in the brand and went abroad to ＂make friends＂

According to the data of China Automobile Industry Association, in 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 9.587 million and 9.495 million respectively, up by 35.8% and 37.9% year-on-year, and the market share reached 31.6%. Compared with the same period, the global sales volume of new energy vehicles was 14.653 million, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China accounted for nearly 65%, which is why China’s production and sales volume of new energy vehicles remained the first in the world for nine consecutive years. The data shows that after years of development and precipitation, China has basically built a new energy automobile industry chain that takes into account both independent research and development strength and market core competitiveness.

Based on this, more and more domestic new energy automobile brands and products are accelerating to go abroad and actively explore more possibilities in overseas markets. On March 26th, the 45th Bangkok International Auto Show will officially kick off, with many new energy automobile brands from China participating, including hybrid electric vehicles, pure electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles. Among hundreds of dazzling models, the reporter noticed that the domestic micro-electric vehicle industry leader — — Hongri Automobile Group also brought its products of Hongri, Weiao and Hongxida to the auto show.

It is understood that this is the second time that Hongri Automobile Group has participated in the Bangkok Auto Show. Five real cars including Hongri X9, S1MAX, BOMA EV, Hongxida ID2 and JM07 all landed in Bangkok, and the number of exhibitors reached a new high.

Liu Shubin, director of the international trade department of Hongri Automobile Group, told the reporter that several products under the group have attracted the attention, consultation, negotiation and ordering of foreign multinational customers. "Hongdou is a low-speed car with two doors and two seats, and its compact design mainly caters to the needs of female consumer groups. Many customers from Europe have expressed their hope to transform Hongdou into a model that meets the L6E standard. To this end, the Group is constantly striving to adjust its products to meet this demand. As a high-speed passenger car, Weiao is deeply favored by Southeast Asian consumers with its spacious space and affordable price, and has become an explosive product in Southeast Asian market. Hongxida series products, which focus on three-wheeled vehicles, are widely praised for their diverse styles, outstanding quality and strong practicality. "

Regarding the active participation in overseas auto shows, Liu Shubin believes that "overseas auto shows are an important communication platform for the global auto industry. As a company with a highly international vision, Hongri Automobile Group’s participation in overseas auto shows is an important part of the global strategic layout. At the auto show, we can show our unique brand concept and innovative product design, thus attracting the attention of consumers around the world; At the same time, through in-depth interaction with overseas markets, we will better understand the needs and preferences of international consumers and provide strong support for future product development and marketing. Finally, the brand influence and the double expansion of sales channels will be realized. "

"At present, the scale of Hongri Automobile Group in overseas markets is in a stage of continuous expansion." According to reports, after in-depth market research and strategic layout, the Group has achieved remarkable results in Southeast Asia. We have established stable cooperative relations with customers in more than 20 countries, such as Pakistan, Thailand and the Philippines, and further consolidated our market position by signing agency agreements.

Improving the competitiveness of products is the only way for Hongri Automobile Group to achieve stability and prosperity. In order to achieve this goal, the Group has continuously increased investment in R&D, optimized the performance and endurance of new energy vehicles, focused on establishing a perfect after-sales service system, and provided timely and professional technical support and maintenance services for overseas users. In the face of the variability and complexity of overseas markets, Liu Shubin pointed out that the Group also made efforts from three other aspects:

First of all, continue to deepen the layout of existing markets, strengthen cooperation with countries and regions such as Southeast Asia and Europe, and enhance the market share and brand influence of hot-selling products.

Secondly, actively respond to the green development trend of the global automobile industry, increase R&D investment in the field of new energy vehicles, and introduce more new energy vehicle products that meet international environmental protection standards to meet the demand of environmental protection and energy-saving vehicles in overseas markets.

Finally, we will further strengthen strategic cooperation with overseas partners, jointly explore and develop emerging markets, expand overseas sales channels and service networks, and provide consumers around the world with a more convenient and efficient car purchase and car use experience.

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At present, Hongri Automobile Group has three production bases in Rizhao, Shandong, Binzhou, and Jinzhai, Anhui, and has built two R&D centers in Qingdao and Shanghai, independently developing 177 patents and mastering three core technologies of micro electric vehicles. At the same time, we have carried out comprehensive cooperation with Zeba Co., Ltd. in the research and development of micro electric vehicles, and worked with international first-class modeling teams such as Central Academy of Fine Arts, North America and Europe to build high-quality models that meet consumption expectations.

In the past two years, based on the continuous improvement of R&D capability, production capacity and market competitiveness, Hongri Automobile Group has actively and stably delivered high-quality new energy automobile products and services to all parts of the world. With the increasing brand influence and the accumulation of word of mouth, the Group’s process of going abroad is about to enter a new stage of rapid development, making friends with China Zhizao abroad into reality, and gradually realizing the transformation from flow to retention.

＂Planning for this period＂ property market loosening： challenges and opportunities coexist

　　China xiaokang. com exclusive feature

　　Text | "Xiaokang" China Xiaokang.com reporter Mai Yuhua

　　"Living and living in peace and contentment" has always been a great concern of China people. Recently, the national property market as a whole has shown a trend of falling volume and price. Facing the new situation, the real estate market optimization and adjustment policies are frequent from the central government to the local government to consolidate the sustainable development of the property market.

　　We should adjust and optimize the real estate policy in a timely manner; We will implement policies and measures such as reducing the down payment ratio and loan interest rate for the purchase of the first home, reducing taxes and fees for the purchase of improved housing, and "recognizing the house without repaying the loan" for personal housing loans; Precise implementation of differentiated housing credit policies due to city policies … Recently, the relevant departments of the central government frequently optimize and adjust the real estate market.

　　The central government set the tone, and local governments responded. Many cities in the first, second and third tiers loosened restrictive housing purchase policies and continuously optimized real estate control policies. Among them, Beijing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Shanghai and other first-tier cities have voiced their voices, saying that they will support residents’ rigid and improved housing needs in light of their own real estate conditions. Second-and third-tier cities have also introduced policies: more than 10 cities such as Changsha, Qingdao and Hefei have relaxed their loan restrictions; Changzhou, Wuxi and other cities relaxed the price limit; Zhengzhou, Xiamen, Qingdao and other cities have relaxed restrictions on sales …

　　"Living and living in peace and contentment" has always been a part of China people’s concern. The change of the real estate market is the embodiment of the economic and social development on the macro level, and it also affects the value of the just-needed residence of everyone in China on the micro level. Therefore, under the new adjustment cycle, both the central and local governments have actively and continuously introduced various new policies to loosen the property market in order to develop. What impact will these new policies have on the real estate market? What challenges and opportunities do housing enterprises and individuals face?

　　The national property market as a whole shows a trend of falling volume and price.

　　Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released "Basic Situation of National Real Estate Market from January to July 2023" and "Changes in Sales Price of Commercial Housing in 70 Large and Medium-sized Cities in July 2023". Judging from the completion of real estate development investment, from January to July 2023, the national real estate development investment was 6,771.7 billion yuan, down 8.5% year-on-year; Among them, residential investment was 5,148.5 billion yuan, down 7.6%. It can be seen that the investment in real estate development generally shows a downward trend.

　　Judging from the sales and sale of commercial housing, from January to July 2023, the sales area of commercial housing was 665.63 million square meters, down 6.5% year-on-year, of which the sales area of residential housing decreased by 4.3%. The sales of commercial housing was 7,045 billion yuan, down by 1.5%, of which residential sales increased by 0.7%. Except for the slight increase in residential sales year-on-year, the rest of the data showed a downward trend. Geographically, the increase in residential sales is mainly due to the 3% year-on-year increase in commercial housing sales in the eastern region including Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Guangdong and Hainan. However, residential sales in central, western and northeastern regions all decreased year-on-year. Among them, the sales of commercial housing in the central region decreased by 9.5% year-on-year.

　　Judging from the changes in the sales price of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the sales price of commercial housing fluctuated slightly in July 2023. Sheng Guoqing, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, explained that the sales price of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities has increased, and the number of cities has decreased. The sales price of commercial housing in each city has remained flat or decreased, and it has increased and decreased year-on-year.

　　The data shows that in July 2023, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, the sales prices of newly-built commercial housing and second-hand housing increased by 20 and 6 respectively, which was 11 and 1 less than that in June 2023.

　　"The sales prices of commercial residential buildings in cities in various lines decreased slightly from the previous month. From the perspective of new commercial housing, in July, the sales price of new commercial housing in first-tier cities was flat for two consecutive months, with Beijing and Shanghai rising by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively, and Guangzhou and Shenzhen dropping by 0.2% and 0.6% respectively. The sales price of new commercial housing in second-tier cities changed from flat last month to a decrease of 0.2%; The sales price of new commercial housing in third-tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, and the decline rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that of last month. From the perspective of second-hand housing, in July, the sales price of second-hand housing in first-tier cities decreased by 0.8% month-on-month, and the decline was 0.1 percentage points higher than that of the previous month; The sales price of second-hand residential buildings in second-tier cities decreased by 0.5% month-on-month, and the decline rate was 0.1 percentage points higher than that of last month; The sales price of second-hand residential buildings in third-tier cities decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, the same as last month. " Sheng Guoqing said.

　　The sales prices of commercial housing in cities of all lines have increased and decreased year-on-year. In July 2023, among 70 large and medium-sized cities, the sales prices of newly-built commercial housing and second-hand housing increased year-on-year, with 26 and 5 cities respectively, one less than that in June 2023.

　　According to the interpretation of the National Day, in July 2023, the sales price of new commercial housing in first-and second-tier cities increased by 1.0% and 0.2% respectively year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; The sales price of new commercial housing in third-tier cities decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, and the decline rate was 0.1 percentage point higher than that of last month. In July 2023, the sales prices of second-hand houses in first-,second-and third-tier cities decreased by 1.4%, 2.7% and 3.5% year-on-year, respectively, and the decline rates increased by 1.0, 0.3 and 0.1 percentage points compared with the previous month.

　　"In my opinion, there are several main reasons for the recent decline in real estate prices." Feng Jianlin, chief economist of Beijing Fushengde Information Consulting Co., Ltd. believes that in the medium and long term, the real estate industry has entered a downward channel, and the relationship between supply and demand and price expectations have changed. Everyone buys up and does not buy down. In the medium term, the economy is still recovering, and the employment and income expectations of residents are weak. In the short term, some large real estate enterprises have financial crisis, which makes all parties have doubts about whether they can get the house or not.

　　"From a policy perspective, everyone expects the policy to be adjusted, and the mortgage down payment and interest rate may be lowered. These policies are slowly coming out, and some people may be waiting. The property market continues to be depressed and the downward pressure is increasing, which has a wide and far-reaching impact. For the country, the overall economic situation has been dragged down, affecting taxation and land transfer, and affecting the construction industry and employment. For developers, the pressure of capital turnover is great, and the operation is more difficult, so it is necessary to promote the payment as much as possible. For an individual, if he is buying a new house, he may choose to wait and see and wait for the house price to go down before buying. For second-hand housing transactions, both buyers and sellers may have price reduction expectations. " Feng Jianlin said.

　　In the future, China will adjust and optimize the real estate policy in a timely manner, and make good use of the relevant policy toolbox to better meet the rigid and improved housing needs of residents and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Mai yuhua/photo

　　The central government issued effective policies in time to prevent risks.

　　There is an objective relationship between the stable and healthy development of the real estate market and the economic growth of China. Therefore, in the past three years, the real estate industry has continuously implemented the central government’s prevention and resolution of risks in key areas, and at the same time, all localities have effectively responded to the downward pressure on the real estate industry due to urban policies.

　　On July 24th, the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee held a meeting. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas, adapt to the new situation in which the relationship between supply and demand in China’s real estate market has undergone major changes, adjust and optimize real estate policies in a timely manner, and make good use of the policy toolbox because of the city’s policy to better meet the rigid and improved housing needs of residents and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. The meeting proposed for the first time to adjust and optimize the real estate policy in a timely manner.

　　At the end of July, Ni Hong, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said that he strongly supported the demand for rigid and improved housing, and further implemented policies and measures such as reducing the down payment ratio and loan interest rate for the first home purchase, reducing taxes and fees for the purchase of improved housing, and "recognizing housing without repaying loans" for personal housing loans; Continue to do a good job in ensuring the delivery of buildings, speed up the delivery of project construction, and effectively protect the legitimate rights and interests of the people. This is not only the implementation of "timely adjustment and optimization of real estate policy", but also the key guiding significance for local policy adjustment. On July 26, the State Administration of Taxation issued guidelines on relevant preferential tax policies in recent years, involving deed tax and value-added tax on individual house purchases.

　　On August 1st, the People’s Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange stated that they should accurately implement differentiated housing credit policies due to the city’s policy and continue to guide the downward trend of individual housing loan interest rates and down payment ratio. Guide commercial banks to adjust the interest rate of existing individual housing loans in an orderly manner according to law. On August 3rd, Pan Gongsheng, Party Secretary and President of China People’s Bank, presided over a symposium on financial support for the development of private enterprises. Pan Gongsheng demanded that differentiated housing credit policies should be accurately implemented to meet the reasonable financing needs of private real estate enterprises and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate industry.

　　Chen Jia, an independent international strategy researcher, believes that the central government is far-sighted and timely puts forward a scientific judgment of "adapting to the new situation in which the supply and demand relationship in China’s real estate market has undergone major changes". Under the guidance of this judgment, in the future, China will adjust and optimize the real estate policy in a timely manner, and make good use of the relevant policy toolbox to better meet the rigid and improved housing needs of residents and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

　　"From the perspective of specific grasping, there are currently three main directions. First, the construction and supply of affordable housing; Second, the reconstruction of villages in cities and the construction of public infrastructure for both peacetime and emergency use; The third is the revitalization of all kinds of idle real estate. " Chen Jia said.

　　He also believes that from the analysis of the latest real estate policy spirit of the central government and various parts, the central government has a clear and clear positioning for the economic growth pulling effect of the stable and healthy development of the real estate industry under the new era and new requirements. In particular, under the new situation, there is a clearer and clearer strategic direction on how to adjust and optimize the real estate regulation and control policies, innovate the policy toolbox according to local conditions, promote the real estate industry to speed up the risk clearing, improve the effective investment in real estate, and promote the consumption of related industrial chains such as home decoration.

　　Feng Jianlin said that it is very necessary to lower the mortgage interest rate and down payment. The effectiveness of the policy should still be expected. The main reason is that if the second home down payment and interest rate are lowered, it will help to release the demand for improvement. At present, two-thirds of China’s population are permanent residents in cities and towns, and there are a lot of improvement needs in these populations.

　　"The policy of lowering the second home loan interest rate and down payment should be introduced as soon as possible. At the same time, the strength of this policy should be greater. If we continue to hesitate and squeeze toothpaste, we may miss the opportunity, let the market continue to cool down, and let the industry and the whole economy bear greater pressure and risks. Timely adjust and optimize the real estate policy’. I personally understand that this’ timely’ is now. This’ adjustment and optimization’ requires a certain degree of strength. Only by timely introducing strong policies can we achieve the goal of preventing and resolving risks. " Feng Jianlin said.

　　Different cities boost market confidence because of city policies

　　From the central government to the local government, whether it is first-tier cities or second-and third-tier cities, the real estate market optimization and adjustment policies are frequent everywhere to consolidate the sustainable development of the property market. Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the National Economic Statistics Department, pointed out that recently, the first-tier cities in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have voiced their voices intensively, saying that they should support and better meet the demand for rigid and improved housing. Some second-and third-tier cities are also introducing new real estate control policies, and the adjustment and optimization of local real estate policies will help boost market confidence. With the economic recovery improving, residents’ income increasing, and the real estate market adjustment and optimization policy effective, residents’ housing consumption and housing enterprises’ willingness to invest are expected to gradually improve.

　　At present, all kinds of cities are planning to adjust their real estate policies. Among them, first-tier cities quickly voiced their voices after the "timely adjustment and optimization of real estate policies" was put forward. On the evening of July 29th, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development stated that it would adhere to the general tone of striving for progress while maintaining stability, combine with the actual situation of Beijing’s real estate market, and work closely with relevant departments to implement the work, vigorously support and better meet the rigid and improved housing needs of residents, and promote the stable and healthy development of Beijing’s real estate market.

　　On July 30th, Shenzhen Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau said that it would work with relevant municipal departments, central institutions stationed in Shenzhen and all districts to better meet the demand of residents for rigid and improved housing, solidly promote the work of guaranteeing the delivery of buildings, effectively maintain the order of the real estate market, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market in Shenzhen.

　　From January to July 2023, the national real estate development investment was 6,771.7 billion yuan, down 8.5% year-on-year; Among them, residential investment was 5,148.5 billion yuan, down 7.6%.

　　Also on July 30th, Guangzhou Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau also stated that it would adhere to the general tone of striving for stability, seek truth from facts and step up implementation, and launch relevant policies and measures as soon as possible in light of Guangzhou’s actual situation, vigorously support and better meet the demand for rigid and improved housing, and promote the stable and healthy development of Guangzhou’s real estate market.

　　On July 31, the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the Municipal Housing Management Bureau stated that they would adhere to the general tone of striving for stability, implement the new development concept completely, accurately and comprehensively, support the rigid and improved housing demand due to the city’s policy, do a good job in ensuring the delivery of buildings, people’s livelihood and stability, and promote the stable and healthy development of the Shanghai real estate market.

　　This is the first time since 2017 that four first-tier cities have made a centralized statement. Chen Jia believes that the policies of some core first-and second-tier cities are relatively strict, and there is still much room for policy adjustment. Feng Jianlin suggested that first-tier cities can also have more creative practices. For example, zoning policies allow districts to appropriately adjust policies such as purchase restrictions.

　　In addition to the North, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the provincial level and many cities such as Chongqing, Zhengzhou, Nanjing, Hefei, Shenyang and Xining have introduced policies related to real estate. At the provincial level, the Hunan Provincial Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued the Notice on Further Stabilizing the Real Estate Market in July 2023, and introduced 11 measures such as classified regulation of the property market and regional linkage regulation. Jiangsu allows all localities to take comprehensive measures such as house purchase subsidies, house ticket placement, house purchase group purchase, etc. to better meet the housing demand of residents.

　　The property market policies introduced by several cities have different characteristics. Hefei proposed to boldly and steadily promote the pilot project of "existing home sales" of commercial housing, and actively explore the pricing of commercial housing sales according to the interior area. Zhengzhou implements the policy of "recognizing houses but not loans"; For the purchase of improved housing, the original housing will be suspended from the sale restriction policy.

　　Many cities also encourage the purchase of houses in the form of housing subsidies. For example, Nanjing introduced a housing subsidy policy. Its policy is clear, encouraging the new six districts to continue to purchase new commercial housing within the specified period according to the actual situation of the regional market, and give a certain proportion of housing subsidies according to the contract price. Qixia District and Yuhuatai District will implement subsidies for the purchase of new commercial housing after evaluating the actual market situation within their respective jurisdictions, effectively reducing the burden of rigid and improved housing purchase. In addition, some third-and fourth-tier cities have also introduced housing subsidy policies. For example, Jinhua, Zhejiang, gives 0.8% ~ 1.2% subsidy to residents who buy houses from August to September this year, and Lanxi, Zhejiang gives 1% subsidy to residents who buy new houses from August to September this year.

　　Many places have also given policy support from the housing provident fund system, especially encouraging the withdrawal of provident fund as a down payment trend. On August 4, Hainan Provincial Housing Provident Fund Administration and Hainan Provincial Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a notice, allowing Hainan to withdraw housing provident fund to pay the down payment for the purchase of new commercial housing and affordable housing in the province. In addition, Chongqing, Qingdao, Shandong, Fuyang, Anhui, Meizhou, Guangdong and other places have clearly proposed to encourage the withdrawal of provident fund for down payment.

　　Regarding the policies at different levels and in different cities, Chen Jia believes that there are great regional differences in urban development, so in the future, all localities must make policies according to local conditions and cities. It is necessary to fully estimate the space and time for the adjustment of local policy toolboxes, and pay close attention to the specific market operation of each city. Judging from the time series data, the current real estate restrictive policies in the second, third and fourth tier cities are in the basic liberalization range.

　　"China’s real estate industry policy adjustment in the future can be considered from four directions. First, adjust and optimize regional policy price limits and stabilize price repair expectations; The second is to optimize the recognition of housing and loans, reduce the down payment, and release the just-needed; The third is to optimize the purchase restriction policy and accelerate destocking due to the city’s policy; The fourth is to open up a blocking point in the second-hand housing sales market and accelerate the capital turnover in the real estate market. " Chen Jia said.

　　From January to July 2023, the sales area of commercial housing was 665.63 million square meters, down 6.5% year-on-year. The sales of commercial housing reached 7,045 billion yuan, down by 1.5%.

　　The exposure of housing enterprises’ debt risks affects market expectations.

　　Recently, the news about Country Garden has been overwhelming. The reason is that Country Garden has two US dollar debt coupons due on August 7, totaling 22.5 million US dollars, but it failed to pay them on time. On August 10th, Country Garden issued a profit warning and insider information announcement. It is mentioned that the company’s management has made a profound reflection. Although it has predicted the current market adjustment cycle, it has underestimated the depth, intensity and persistence of the market downturn, failed to make a more powerful response as early as possible, failed to see that the supply and demand relationship in the real estate market has undergone major changes, and failed to understand the potential risks such as excessive investment ratio in third-and fourth-tier cities and lower-tier cities, insufficient speed of debt ratio drop, and failed to resolve them in time and effectively.

　　According to the financial report, by the end of 2022, Country Garden’s contracted sales in third-and fourth-tier cities still accounted for 60%; The land that has been signed or delisted has a building area of 201.5 million square meters, 79% of which are distributed outside Guangdong and are highly scattered all over the country. The profit warning and insider information announcement mentioned that the company’s net loss in the first half of 2023 will be between 45 billion yuan and 55 billion yuan.

　　Subsequently, on August 11th, Country Garden issued an apology letter. Yang Huiyan, chairman of the board of directors of the company, and Mo Bin, president of the company, said in a joint letter that although the company has gone all out to save itself, the overall market has not recovered, the absolute scale of the industry has declined, it will take time to restore confidence in the capital market, and the overall operating pressure of the company has increased, facing the biggest difficulty since its establishment.

　　Regarding the recent Country Garden real estate incident, Fu Linghui said that at present, the real estate market is generally in the adjustment stage, and some housing enterprises have encountered certain difficulties, especially the debt risks of some leading housing enterprises have been exposed, which has affected market expectations. However, we should see that these problems are phased. With the gradual function of the market adjustment mechanism and the adjustment and optimization of the real estate market policies, the risks of housing enterprises are expected to be gradually resolved.

　　Not only Country Garden, but also many real estate enterprises are experiencing "the darkest hour" in recent years. Evergrande, which was the first to have problems, issued a clarification announcement on the market news about "bankruptcy protection" on August 18th. The announcement said that it is currently promoting overseas debt restructuring as planned. "As the US dollar bonds of the Company are governed by the laws of new york, the Company applied to the US court for recognition of the overseas debt restructuring arrangements under the legal systems of Hong Kong and British Virgin Islands (BVI) in accordance with Chapter 15 of Title 11 of the US Code, which is part of the normal overseas restructuring procedure and does not involve bankruptcy application."

　　Buyers expect that the policy will be adjusted, and the mortgage down payment and interest rate may be lowered, so the wait-and-see mood is strong. The picture shows Hu Yan/photo of a real estate sales center in Qingyuan, Guangdong.

　　And Sunac is still saving itself. On August 18th, Sunac announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that it expected a net loss of 15 billion yuan to 16 billion yuan in the first half of the year, compared with 18.76 billion yuan in the same period last year. "The loss was mainly affected by the downturn of the real estate market, and the gross profit margin of the carried-over property projects was low during this period, and the expected net exchange loss was caused by foreign exchange fluctuations."

　　In order to solve the debt repayment problem, Sunac has been selling projects recently. On July 7th, Sunac sold 100% equity of Zhenhuafu Project Company at a price of 200 million yuan. The buyer was Ronglian Road and Bridge Company designated by Rong Feng Company to offset Sunac’s debt of 200 million yuan to Rong Feng Company. On August 10th, Sunac sold the Rongyao City Project in Fuzhou, which was jointly developed with Shoukai. On August 17th, Sunac announced that it would sell three projects, including Zhenhuafu Hotel, Wangjinsha Hotel and Hefei Xiuchang Hotel, with a total amount of about 1.23 billion yuan, in order to solve the debt repayment problem of Rong Feng Company.

　　For many housing enterprises facing the "dark moment", Feng Jianlin believes that on the whole, the entire real estate industry has entered the downward channel, and both private enterprises and state-owned enterprises will face pressure. At present, urbanization has obviously slowed down. Before the epidemic, the urbanization rate increased by 1.3-1.5 percentage points every year, but only by 0.5-0.8 percentage points in the past two years. The population of new cities has dropped by about half, so naturally there is no need to build so many new houses. Therefore, there is a serious overcapacity in the real estate development industry.

　　"Now, to go through a process of de-capacity, a considerable number of housing enterprises will eventually be eliminated. This process will continue for some time, and winter is still very long. Housing enterprises should prepare for the winter as soon as possible, quickly reduce leverage, be flexible in price policies, and do more marketing through various methods. " Feng Jianlin said.

　　Chen Jia believes that no matter how the property tax and other policies are optimized, China’s real estate industry must change the low-quality development model of "high debt, high leverage and high turnover" for many years.

　　"The recent transformation of the real estate industry from light assets to emerging service industries such as property management and business management is an active exploration of accelerating reform, upgrading risk control, digital transformation and business model transformation, and promoting the transformation of the real estate industry to a high-quality development model. In the future, with the continuous deepening of digital technology, financial technology and technological progress in the real estate industry chain in China, the comprehensive digital transformation of the real estate industry will continue to exert its strength. The foundation of destocking and risk reduction in China’s real estate industry is expected to be further consolidated, the central policy is expected to be effectively implemented, and the macro economy is expected to be further supported and pulled by the real estate industry. " Chen Jia said.

　　("Xiaokang" China Xiaokang. com exclusive feature)

　　This article was published in the mid-September 2023 issue of Xiaokang.

　　Author: Mai Wanhua

Reporting/feedback

The cold air caused the temperature in the north to dive and ushered in the first snowfall in the second half of the year.

　　BEIJING, Beijing, Oct. 10 (Xinhua)-The 9th is the first working day at the end of the Eleventh Golden Week. Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and other places have experienced heavy rainfall, and Qinghai, Inner Mongolia and other places even ushered in the first snowfall this autumn. The cooling wind made it difficult for many office workers returning to work to adapt for a while, shouting "I want to wear long pants".

　　According to the latest weather forecast, the temperature in Northeast China, North China, Shaanxi, Sichuan, Chongqing and other places will drop by 6-10℃ today and tomorrow, and the local temperature drop can reach 12℃. There is strong precipitation in the southeast of northwest China and North China, and moderate to heavy snow in parts of Ningxia and Gansu.

　　On October 9, the temperature dropped sharply in many places in Inner Mongolia. On the streets of Hohhot, pedestrians riding electric cars put on "cotton-padded clothes" to travel. China News Service reporter Liu Wenhua photo

　　Just entering October, I "want to wear long pants"

　　— —Rainfall in many places in the north has cooled down, and the local temperature drop has exceeded 10℃

　　In October, after enjoying the Golden Week holiday, office workers need to overcome not only the "holiday syndrome", but also the windy and cool weather. With the arrival of cold air, there has been a sharp cooling in many places in the north in recent days. On social platforms, many netizens shouted "to wear long pants" in their circle of friends.

　　According to the report of the Central Meteorological Observatory on the evening of the 9th, due to the influence of cold air, at 14: 00 on the 9th, compared with 14: 00 on the previous day, the central and eastern Jilin, Liaoning, central Inner Mongolia, northern Hebei, western Shanxi, central and northern Shaanxi, Ningxia, central and southern Gansu and other places experienced a temperature drop of 6-8 C, and the local temperature drop reached 10-12 C.

　　In addition, heavy rainfall, fog and other weather in many places have also added traffic pressure to the first working day after the Golden Week. Among them, Weibo Meteorological Beijing, the official of Beijing Meteorological Bureau, reported that the average precipitation in Beijing reached 29.8 mm from 4: 00 to 16: 00 on the 9th.

　　According to media reports, on the morning of the 9 th, the rainy and foggy weather in Beijing continued, and several high-speed sections of Jingha, Beijing-Tianjin and Jingping were closed; Rain and fog also affected flights at the Capital Airport. As of 11: 00 on the 9th, more than 100 inbound and outbound flights were delayed and more than 50 flights were cancelled.

　　Cold air comes with snow

　　— — Many places welcomed the first snowfall in the second half of the year, and the temperature hit a new low in the second half of the year.

　　In addition to strong winds and rainfall, snowfall occurred in some places in the north. According to a report from the Central Meteorological Observatory on the evening of the 9th, 1-7mm snowfall or sleet occurred in central Gansu, eastern Qinghai and central Inner Mongolia during the daytime on the 9th.

　　According to media reports, due to the influence of cold air, Xining, Qinghai Province ushered in the first snowfall since autumn on the 9th. The daily minimum temperature dropped to 0.9℃, and the temperature hit a new low since the second half of this year. The meteorological department of Qinghai Province issued several yellow warnings for cold waves.

　　The staff of Qinghai Meteorological Bureau told the media that the first snow in Xining this year was 20 days earlier than last year, and the low temperature weather will continue. It is understood that at present, Xining has not yet entered the heating season, but due to the obvious drop in temperature, citizens have put on winter cotton clothes and masks.

　　Some areas in Inner Mongolia also ushered in the first working day after a long holiday in the wet and cold. According to media reports, the first snowfall occurred in many places in Inner Mongolia since the second half of the year, with obvious snowfall in Alxa League, Bayannaoer, Baotou, Wulanchabu and Hulunbeier. The snowfall time in central and western Inner Mongolia was the earliest in recent 10 years, and the maximum snow depth in Hulunbeier boketu has reached 13 cm.

　　Zhang Fanghua, chief forecaster of the Central Meteorological Observatory, said that the cold air process affected a wide range and lasted for a long time, with a large cooling range, long precipitation duration and large accumulated precipitation in the northern region.

　　Zhang Fanghua suggested that the cold air process not only brought about obvious cooling, but also accompanied by a wide range of precipitation weather, and the body temperature will be very low, and the temperature in most areas in the next 10 days will be lower than that in the same period of the year. At present, most areas have not been centrally heated, and the public needs to take cold-proof and warm-keeping measures.

　　National gale cooling forecast map (from 20: 00 on October 9 to 20: 00 on October 11). Image source: Central Meteorological Observatory official website

　　Cold air will continue to go south.

　　— — The cumulative cooling range in Wuhan and Chongqing can reach 15℃

　　As the saying goes, an autumn rain is cold, and ten autumn rains put on cotton. In the next few days, the cooling weather will continue.

　　According to the official website news of the Central Meteorological Observatory, it is estimated that there will be a temperature drop of 6-10℃ in the central and eastern parts of Northeast China, most of North China, southwestern Shaanxi, northeastern Sichuan, Chongqing, Huanghuai, Jianghan, Jianghuai and northern Jiangnan from 20: 00 on the 9th to 20: 00 on the 11th, and the local temperature drop can reach 12℃. There are 4-6 winds in most of these areas.

　　For example, under the influence of rain and cold air, the temperature in Beijing will continue to drop. According to media reports, the highest temperature in Beijing during the day on the 10th was only 11℃, and the lowest temperature in the morning on the 11th will drop to 7℃, both of which will hit new lows since the second half of this year.

　　In addition, the cold air continues to go south. According to media reports, Hubei will usher in a "roller coaster" decline in temperature from the 10th, and the highest temperature in northwest Hubei will be the first to drop to 18-21 C; On the 11th, the temperature will drop further, and the highest temperature in Wuhan will drop to 16℃, and the cumulative cooling rate can reach 15℃.

　　According to local media reports in Chongqing, a cooling and rainy weather process began in Chongqing on the evening of the 9 th, which lasted until the 12 th, and the daily average temperature will drop by 6-9 C. From the perspective of the whole city, the highest temperature will drop from 33℃ to 18℃, and the cooling rate will be as high as 15℃.

　　In addition, it is expected that there will be heavy rain and local heavy rain in parts of Sichuan, Shaanxi, North China, Liaoning and Jilin from 20: 00 on the 9 th to 20: 00 on the 10 th; In Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Gansu, Qinghai and other places, rain will turn to sleet or snowfall. Among them, there are moderate to heavy snow in parts of southern Ningxia and central Gansu, and there are heavy snow in mountainous areas.

　　It is understood that on October 12, the cold air force will weaken and the cooling will end. At that time, only Jiangnan and northern South China will have a temperature drop of 2 C to 4 C.