Workers work in the workshop of Huanghua Branch of Beijing New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd., located in Huanghua City, Hebei Province. Xinhua News Agency reporter Yang Shizhen photo
I want to buy a car, but I can’t shake the number and get the card — — In recent years, consumers in many cities have been troubled by this.
Not long ago, Ning Ji Zhe, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission and director of the Bureau of Statistics, said that he would break the restrictions on automobile consumption and liberalize the purchase restriction. This statement has aroused widespread concern.
The reporter found out that up to now, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Hangzhou, Guiyang, Shenzhen and other cities across the country have implemented automobile purchase restriction policies. Since the beginning of this year, Guiyang, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have relaxed the automobile purchase restriction policy to varying degrees.
Will the car purchase restriction for many years usher in full liberalization? Who will be the next city to lift the ban? Can the auto market take advantage of the recovery?
Many cities canceled or relaxed the purchase restriction.
In the past September, the auto market was a little deserted. The automobile market did not welcome the "Jin Jiu" as scheduled. According to the data of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (referred to as China Automobile Association), in September 2019, the production and sales of automobiles in China were 2.209 million and 2.271 million respectively, down 6.2% and 5.2% respectively, and the production and sales of automobiles in China have been declining for 15 consecutive months. In September, the inventory early warning index of automobile dealers was 58.6%, which was still above the warning line.
Xiao Chen, a salesperson of a 4S store in beiyuan road, Chaoyang District, said: "Compared with previous years, the sales volume in September this year was indeed worse than before, and the passenger flow in the store was obviously worse than in previous years."
Xu Haidong, Assistant Secretary-General of China Automobile Industry Association, said in an interview with this reporter: "Since the second half of last year, consumption in China’s automobile market has continued to decline. We expect that the overall automobile market in China will continue to maintain a low speed or even negative growth in the next 2-3 years. "
In the case of continuous downturn, the liberalization of the automobile purchase restriction policy will undoubtedly be a powerful "shot in the arm" for the automobile market.
On September 12th, Guiyang Public Security Traffic Management Bureau issued the Notice on Abolishing the Announcement on the Management of Passenger Car Number Plates in Guiyang, officially canceling the lottery car purchase. Guiyang became the first city in China to completely cancel the purchase restriction. For Zhang Xiaoman, a citizen of Guiyang, happiness comes suddenly. "In July, the winning rate of Guiyang passenger car license plate was still 8: 1. I was still worried that I didn’t know when I could shake the number. Now it’s good, I can get the card if I buy a car!"
On September 29th, Guangzhou announced that it would allocate 10,000 incremental indicators of ordinary cars by lottery, including 1,000 unit indicators and 9,000 individual indicators. Previously, Guangzhou has made it clear that from June this year to December 2020, it will increase the number of passenger cars by 100,000. The 10,000 new indicators are additional indicators, so the total number of fuel vehicle indicators will reach 170,000 in 2019.
In synchronization with Guangzhou, Shenzhen has also decided to increase the number of ordinary cars by 40,000 every year on the original basis.
Many experts have analyzed that the liberalization of the purchase restriction policy in many places will not only stimulate the consumption in the local automobile market, but also be another good signal for the national automobile market to "loosen" the purchase restriction.
It is expected to bring hot car consumption quickly.
Why "lift the ban"? Let’s first look at why we should "ban".
Xu Haidong introduced: "The role of purchase restriction is to solve congestion and the other is to solve the problem of emission pollution. Although it is impossible to completely solve the traffic congestion problem, the purchase restriction has delayed the rapid increase of vehicles to a certain extent, thus slowing down the increase of congestion and slowing down the intensification of urban pollution. " As a matter of fact, most cities in China that implement automobile purchase restrictions are densely populated and have tight road resources, and some of them are also facing greater environmental pressure. Taking Beijing as an example, the number of motor vehicles has exceeded 5 million, and "traffic jam" has become a major problem. In Shanghai, Shenzhen and other places, the number of motor vehicles is also above 3 million.
Car purchase restriction measures have objectively played a role in alleviating traffic pressure and improving air pollution. However, when this measure was introduced in most cities, it was clear that it would not be implemented for a long time, but would be adjusted according to the actual situation. Since last year, the automobile market has been in a continuous downturn, and the call for relaxing the purchase restriction has gradually increased. Since January this year, various policies to relax the purchase restriction have been continuously overweight.
In January, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Transport and other 10 departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Further Optimizing Supply, Promoting Steady Growth of Consumption and Promoting the Formation of a Strong Domestic Market (2019)", proposing "Optimizing the Management Measures of Motor Vehicle Purchase Restriction" to promote automobile consumption; In June, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting the Updating and Upgrading of Key Consumer Goods and Smooth Resource Recycling (2019-2020)", proposing that all localities should not restrict or purchase new energy vehicles; In August, the General Office of the State Council issued the Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Circulation to Promote Commercial Consumption, which clearly stated that the areas where the automobile purchase restriction is implemented should explore specific measures to gradually relax or cancel the purchase restriction in light of the actual situation, and where conditions permit, give active support to the purchase of new energy vehicles.
Xu Haidong said: "Since the beginning of this year, the government has considered how to stimulate the recovery of automobile consumption and issued a series of related policies, all of which regard relaxing the purchase restriction on automobiles as an important part. The direct purpose of relaxing the purchase restriction on automobiles is to stimulate domestic demand and stimulate automobile consumption. "
Zhou Liqun, director of the Automobile and Social Development Consulting and Research Center, analyzed: "China is a country with a large population and a relatively heavy domestic demand. It can play a more obvious role in promoting economic growth by canceling the automobile purchase restriction." Comparing the number of cars per thousand people, the data released by the World Bank show that there are 837 cars per thousand people in the United States, 591 cars per thousand people in Japan and 173 cars per thousand people in China. "As can be seen from the number of thousands of people, China’s automobile industry still has a lot of room for development. We are still optimistic about the overall development prospect of China’s automobile market, and it is estimated that the automobile sales in China will hover around 35 million vehicles. Of course, if the western regions and other regions develop rapidly, there may be a huge breakthrough. " Zhou Liqun said.
The next "lifting the ban" city arouses imagination.
Ning Ji Zhe revealed that with Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other cities relaxing or canceling the purchase restriction regulations, cities such as Xi ‘an and Kunming are also considering relaxing the purchase restriction, and some qualified regions will follow suit one after another.
What conditions are expected to be "lifted"?
Zhou Liqun analyzed that whether a city relaxes the purchase restriction should comprehensively consider the car ownership, land area, resident population and other factors in the city. Generally speaking, the development of automobile industry is closely related to five factors: urban infrastructure, traffic management, environmental protection policy, tax and fee policy and the needs of ordinary people.
So, who is likely to be the next "lifted" city?
Looking at the car ownership, there are 61 cities in China with over one million cars and 27 cities with over two million cars. Among them, Beijing, Chengdu, Chongqing, Shanghai, Suzhou, Zhengzhou, Shenzhen and Xi ‘an have more than 3 million vehicles, and Tianjin, Wuhan and Dongguan have nearly 3 million vehicles. Zhou Liqun’s analysis: "Hangzhou and Tianjin have less than 3 million cars, and their land area is relatively broad. At the same time, the cities themselves have great development prospects. Therefore, these cities have more room to relax the purchase restriction. "
A number of interviewed experts said that the relaxation of automobile purchase restrictions is expected to have different rhythms and focuses in different cities. "Big cities like Beijing and Shanghai have greater traffic pressure and land tension, and many other factors need to be considered in the control of traffic conditions, such as holding large-scale events. Such a city is unlikely to fully liberalize the purchase restriction. However, relevant national policies also need to be implemented, so it may be on new energy vehicles ‘ Work hard ’ It not only conforms to the national policy, but also benefits the automobile development strategy. Although the development of new energy vehicles can not solve the traffic congestion problem, it can solve some pollution problems. Some cities may also take a step-by-step approach to respond to the requirements of relaxing purchase restrictions, and let go of some number plate demand like Guangzhou and Shenzhen. " Xu Haidong said. In terms of sales volume, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2018 was 1.256 million. Although there was an increase, the overall proportion was still small. Therefore, new energy vehicles are likely to usher in greater development.
From another perspective, loosening the purchase restriction is not the only option to stimulate automobile consumption. Zhou Liqun said: "Cities like Beijing and Shanghai should make more efforts in scrapping and replacing automobiles. The development of the automobile industry in these cities started earlier, and the demand for automobile replacement is greater. Therefore, it is basically no problem to maintain the sales of 500,000 to 1 million new cars every year. "
On the occasion of the alternation of "Jin Jiu" and "Silver Ten", the reporter visited a number of 4S stores in Beijing and found that although "Jin Jiu" was not welcomed as scheduled, most car salesmen still had hope to sprint "Silver Ten". Xiao Chen said: "The overall automobile market situation is not very good, but in the case that many automobile brands cut the price of new cars, consumers still have some backflow trends. I believe that under the constant encouragement of policies and the temptation of new car price reduction, the future market recovery is just around the corner. " (Xu Peiyu)