Reminder | New scam! Do you know the mobile phone extension? Someone lost 50 thousand overnight

  CCTV News:Pretending to be an acquaintance to borrow money, pretending to be a public security bureau, a procuratorate or a court officer to investigate a case, and hiding a Trojan link &hellip in short messages and QR codes; … These tricks must have made everyone immune, but do you know? Some telecommunications services that you have never heard of have also begun to become new traps set by scammers!

The mobile phone was locked and more than 50,000 yuan was stolen.

  When he woke up, Mr. He in Shenzhen found that his mobile phone was locked. At the same time, a shopping platform account was stolen by strangers. Criminals used white bars to spend and apply for loans, and robbed more than 50,000 yuan overnight.

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  Later, Mr. He discovered that his mobile phone had been taken over by a strange number. The short message from the operator shows that this is a business to add a secondary number, and Mr. He’s mobile phone number was added as a secondary number by criminals. When the secondary phone is turned off, all short messages will be received by the primary phone, and criminals will receive Mr. He’s short message verification code during this period, and then commit crimes.

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"Subnumber" ≠ "kinship number"

  Without an ID card, a bank card or even a real name, the money is gone. What the hell is a minor number?

  Many people think of "family number" at first, but "deputy number" and "family number" are not the same thing.

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  Family number usually refers to the phone bill package opened by different owners and different numbers in order to make calls between them cheaper, and the secondary number is the "one card with many numbers" service provided by operators. On the basis of not changing mobile phones and SIM cards, users can add up to three real mobile phones as secondary numbers. The main and auxiliary numbers can stand by at the same time, and you can freely choose any number to dial, answer the phone and send and receive short messages as needed.

Don’t reply to text messages too casually.

  Then, how did Mr. He’s mobile phone number become the "secondary number" of criminals?

  Reduction of criminal modus operandi

  Step 1: Buy materials.Criminals buy leaked names, bank card numbers, ID numbers and reserved mobile phone numbers online, commonly known as "four big pieces".

  Step 2: Fishing.Criminals apply to the users who have mastered the bank card information, initiate the business application of binding the sub-number, and find the target of the crime by casting a net widely. Once you reply by mistake, you are hooked.

  Step 3: Forced shutdown.Because the main number can only take over the SMS when the secondary number is turned off, criminals usually use two means at this time. One is to use SMS bombing to force the target to turn off the mobile phone, and the other is to use the mobile phone cloud service to remotely operate the mobile phone.

  Step 4: White Wolf with Empty Gloves.Using the SMS verification code received by the main number, criminals ransacked the online shopping account bound to the mobile phone number.

  Patterns are stacked, and it is impossible to prevent them! For this kind of fraud, after receiving all kinds of SMS notifications, you must read the content of the SMS clearly and do not reply at will.

"SMS custody" business is also not very secure.

  After the SMS storage service is opened, you can save your mobile phone messages on the server of the operator. Now, many mobile phone manufacturers’ cloud services are doing the same thing. However, this is a hidden danger function.

  Case review

  One morning, Miss Ding saw two short messages from banks and mobile phone operators on her mobile phone, which were sent at 3:43 am and 4:12 am respectively. As soon as the account is checked, the balance of more than 100,000 yuan will be zero overnight! Not only that, Miss Ding also suffered a credit card theft and was "applied" for a bank universal loan of 70,000 yuan.

  How on earth did all this happen?

  Reduction of criminal modus operandi

  Step 1: Hit the database to get all kinds of account information.The so-called "library collision" means using software to try a high probability digital sequence. Using this simple and rude method, the user’s network identity, online banking account number, mobile phone business hall and other accounts can be seen at a glance. Insiders said: "The speed of library collision is very fast, at least thousands per minute. If some good equipment is used, the efficiency is higher and the success rate is above 50%."

  Step 2: Open SMS storage and SMS interception services to obtain verification code.This is the most critical step. After the opening of this service, the dynamic verification code to ensure the safety of landing has successfully become the bag of criminals.

  Step 3: Open the physical SIM card.At this point, criminals can pretend to be victims and apply for 4G card replacement service in the online business hall. For the convenience of the people, some operators can express the card directly to the designated address.

  By intercepting short messages and copying SIM cards, fraudsters can "do whatever they want".

  As we all know, many important services rely on mobile phone authentication. If you back up the SMS to the server synchronously, it will increase the exposure opportunity. Once the service password of the online business hall is stolen, or the login permission of the cloud service is stolen, it is equivalent to "swimming naked".

The loopholes in the unpopular business are targeted by scammers.

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  The "Research Report on the Trend of Online Fraud in 2016" released by the anti-fraud reporting platform "Hunting Network Platform" proposes that since 2016, online fraud has mainly shown several obvious characteristics:

  Mobile phone cards have become new theft targets;

  Jump to the phishing website by using short URL and weiyun sharing link;

  Well-known recruitment websites and voice platforms for open recruitment;

  A phishing website that is difficult to distinguish between true and false;

  The implementation of precision fraud;

  Fraud professionalism is getting higher and higher;

  Using loopholes in new business and unpopular business to commit fraud;

  Use cloud disk and synchronization software to steal information.

  Among them, the loopholes in mobile phone cards and unpopular business are mentioned.

  Security experts suggest that we should develop good online habits, don’t click unfamiliar links, don’t fill in our personal information in the website interface with unknown security, and regularly modify the password of social accounts to avoid information such as mobile phone contact information being leaked; Improve safety awareness, develop good habits of using mobile phones, and avoid being infected by mobile phone viruses.

Gemini Man’s China press conference Ang Lee builds the most expensive actor.

On October 14th, the film "Gemini Man" held a huge China press conference in Shanghai. Not only did the film director Ang Lee, producer Jerry Bruckheimer and starring will smith all appear, but also the film’s heavyweight guest, young Will Smith Junior with special effects, came to the scene in a special way.

This is a digital character created by Ang Lee through special effects in movies, which can be called "the most expensive actor in Hollywood" and also the most painstaking role of Ang Lee. At the scene, Ang Lee also revealed that in fact, after he made a tiger with special effects from The Fantasy Drifting of Pi, he came up with the idea of creating "people". In order to make Junior look more real, Ang Lee not only watched the images of Will when he was young, but also studied Will’s face with a magnification of 6,000 times, and learned every detail by heart, which also made Ang Lee confidently say, "I know his face better than his mother. “

The production process is difficult, and will’s acting is not easy. It is reported that Junior is based on motion capture technology, which requires Will to play Junior from beginning to end. As a n experienced person, it’s so difficult to go back and play an ignorant young man that director Ang Lee can’t help feeling, "This is not through what you say, but through your eyes, so you should get rid of the sense of maturity and leave a sense of innocence. It is even more difficult to play a virgin if you are not a virgin. " While talking, I also asked Will to demonstrate on the spot, such as how to play the difference between a virgin and a virgin. Will’s vivid performance made everyone laugh, and the atmosphere was very happy.

Zoom in 6000 times and study Will’s face.

Ang Lee is confident: he knows better than his own mother.

On that day, the most important guest was 23-year-old Will Smith Junior, a fully digital character created by Ang Lee with 100% special effects. In order to win the trust of the audience, Ang Lee watched almost all the images of Will when he was young. "We magnified his face 6,000 times. I dare not say anything in life, but when it comes to face, I know more about it than his biological mother." Will, who met Junior for the first time, admitted that he was scared by the truth of Junior, a special effects person, and was "completely shocked and surprised".

It is a difficulty that the industry doesn’t want to touch to change into a real person on the big screen. Ang Lee also admitted that "this is the most difficult difficulty in special effects, and it takes a lot of money and effort this time." He even revealed that Junior is very expensive, two or three times more expensive than Will Smith, and can be regarded as the most expensive actor in Hollywood.

Will Smith succeeded in Ang Lee, idolize

"Working with him is my lifelong dream."

As early as 2013, Will Smith called Ang Lee for cooperation from a distance, and idolize’s dream finally came true for many years, which also made Will Smith unable to help but feel, "Working with Ang Lee is my lifelong dream, and it has finally come true this time." The excitement is beyond words, and he is a idolize teenager, very cute.

So how did the two cooperate this time? On-site Will revealed that director Ang Lee got rid of him with a phone call. "Ang Lee called me, and I didn’t listen to what I was going to play on the phone, so I said yes! yes! ",said more, there are some directors in this world, you don’t need any reason, at his name will be promised. Ang Lee also said that the chemical reaction between the two was very good. He bluntly said, "He is not only an excellent actor, but also a big star. I am very moved by his willingness to invest unconditionally."

Playing the innocence of young people "stumps" Will.

Demonstrate how a virgin walks on the spot

Of course, the "cost" behind Will’s success in Ang Lee, idolize is not small. "Gemini Man" can be said to be the most challenging performance of Will since he started filming. He wants to play himself at the same time at two different ages, one is a mature and steady middle-aged man and the other is a young man. Will also said that the most difficult thing this time is to perform two people’s different eyes. "Different people have different eyes. How to convey the young and ignorant state with their eyes is the most difficult thing to grasp."

Ang Lee also stamped Will, which is not easy this time. "As a n experienced person, you should remove the sense of maturity from your eyes and perform innocence. It is really difficult to play a virgin without being a virgin. " Will, who was visited by Ang Lee cue, demonstrated the different ways of walking between virgins and non-virgins, and the performance in place made everyone laugh and admired the powerful actor.

The layout of the scene on that day was also very innovative, and the crisscross of blue and red colors complemented the brilliance of BFC Bund Financial Center. At the red carpet scene at night, many mirrors were put in a more ingenious way. It turns out that the killer played by Will Smith in the movie is afraid to look in the mirror and face himself. But that night, when he walked down the red carpet, he shined in front of the mirror, and the charm of the big star came to his face. Other guests present also signed their names in front of the mirror, and everyone saw their second self in the mirror, echoing the theme of "Gemini". The film Gemini Man will be shown nationwide on October 18th.

Directly hit the Bangkok Auto Show | Hongri’s many new cars appeared in the brand and went abroad to "make friends"

According to the data of China Automobile Industry Association, in 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 9.587 million and 9.495 million respectively, up by 35.8% and 37.9% year-on-year, and the market share reached 31.6%. Compared with the same period, the global sales volume of new energy vehicles was 14.653 million, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China accounted for nearly 65%, which is why China’s production and sales volume of new energy vehicles remained the first in the world for nine consecutive years. The data shows that after years of development and precipitation, China has basically built a new energy automobile industry chain that takes into account both independent research and development strength and market core competitiveness.

Based on this, more and more domestic new energy automobile brands and products are accelerating to go abroad and actively explore more possibilities in overseas markets. On March 26th, the 45th Bangkok International Auto Show will officially kick off, with many new energy automobile brands from China participating, including hybrid electric vehicles, pure electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles. Among hundreds of dazzling models, the reporter noticed that the domestic micro-electric vehicle industry leader — — Hongri Automobile Group also brought its products of Hongri, Weiao and Hongxida to the auto show.

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It is understood that this is the second time that Hongri Automobile Group has participated in the Bangkok Auto Show. Five real cars including Hongri X9, S1MAX, BOMA EV, Hongxida ID2 and JM07 all landed in Bangkok, and the number of exhibitors reached a new high.

Liu Shubin, director of the international trade department of Hongri Automobile Group, told the reporter that several products under the group have attracted the attention, consultation, negotiation and ordering of foreign multinational customers. "Hongdou is a low-speed car with two doors and two seats, and its compact design mainly caters to the needs of female consumer groups. Many customers from Europe have expressed their hope to transform Hongdou into a model that meets the L6E standard. To this end, the Group is constantly striving to adjust its products to meet this demand. As a high-speed passenger car, Weiao is deeply favored by Southeast Asian consumers with its spacious space and affordable price, and has become an explosive product in Southeast Asian market. Hongxida series products, which focus on three-wheeled vehicles, are widely praised for their diverse styles, outstanding quality and strong practicality. "

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Regarding the active participation in overseas auto shows, Liu Shubin believes that "overseas auto shows are an important communication platform for the global auto industry. As a company with a highly international vision, Hongri Automobile Group’s participation in overseas auto shows is an important part of the global strategic layout. At the auto show, we can show our unique brand concept and innovative product design, thus attracting the attention of consumers around the world; At the same time, through in-depth interaction with overseas markets, we will better understand the needs and preferences of international consumers and provide strong support for future product development and marketing. Finally, the brand influence and the double expansion of sales channels will be realized. "

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"At present, the scale of Hongri Automobile Group in overseas markets is in a stage of continuous expansion." According to reports, after in-depth market research and strategic layout, the Group has achieved remarkable results in Southeast Asia. We have established stable cooperative relations with customers in more than 20 countries, such as Pakistan, Thailand and the Philippines, and further consolidated our market position by signing agency agreements.

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Improving the competitiveness of products is the only way for Hongri Automobile Group to achieve stability and prosperity. In order to achieve this goal, the Group has continuously increased investment in R&D, optimized the performance and endurance of new energy vehicles, focused on establishing a perfect after-sales service system, and provided timely and professional technical support and maintenance services for overseas users. In the face of the variability and complexity of overseas markets, Liu Shubin pointed out that the Group also made efforts from three other aspects:

First of all, continue to deepen the layout of existing markets, strengthen cooperation with countries and regions such as Southeast Asia and Europe, and enhance the market share and brand influence of hot-selling products.

Secondly, actively respond to the green development trend of the global automobile industry, increase R&D investment in the field of new energy vehicles, and introduce more new energy vehicle products that meet international environmental protection standards to meet the demand of environmental protection and energy-saving vehicles in overseas markets.

Finally, we will further strengthen strategic cooperation with overseas partners, jointly explore and develop emerging markets, expand overseas sales channels and service networks, and provide consumers around the world with a more convenient and efficient car purchase and car use experience.

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At present, Hongri Automobile Group has three production bases in Rizhao, Shandong, Binzhou, and Jinzhai, Anhui, and has built two R&D centers in Qingdao and Shanghai, independently developing 177 patents and mastering three core technologies of micro electric vehicles. At the same time, we have carried out comprehensive cooperation with Zeba Co., Ltd. in the research and development of micro electric vehicles, and worked with international first-class modeling teams such as Central Academy of Fine Arts, North America and Europe to build high-quality models that meet consumption expectations.

In the past two years, based on the continuous improvement of R&D capability, production capacity and market competitiveness, Hongri Automobile Group has actively and stably delivered high-quality new energy automobile products and services to all parts of the world. With the increasing brand influence and the accumulation of word of mouth, the Group’s process of going abroad is about to enter a new stage of rapid development, making friends with China Zhizao abroad into reality, and gradually realizing the transformation from flow to retention.

How do foreign troops "play" war games? The gap between our army and foreign troops is not small.

  Nowadays, computer games are not only a kind of entertainment for game lovers, but also an indispensable means for them to build future soldiers.


  Computer games such as Panorama Warrior, Call of Duty and American SEAL Task Force have been widely used in the training of American troops and have received good results.


  With the improvement of the informationization and networking level of the army, various computer games have gradually entered the PLA barracks and become a means of training soldiers. However, due to the controversy over the understanding of the game, there is still a big gap in our army’s use of computer technology to build a "virtual battlefield" and carry out simulation training.


  Red alert and CS entered the barracks.


  According to the People’s Liberation Army Daily reported on January 24th, the recruits from the new barracks of Hami Military Division in Xinjiang brought a number of online military games such as Red Alert, tank battle and Counter-Terrorism Elite to the army.


  The article said: "Tan Huaishang, a college recruit, also designed a set of game maps according to the actual situation of the army by using the map editor that comes with the game Red Alert. This set of game maps sets the terrain conditions and tactical background according to the training topics, and simulates severe weather such as storms, heavy snow and sandstorms, which promotes the improvement of officers and men’s combat command skills and psychological quality. "


  However, because computer games are a new thing, many PLA officers have not improved the training effect of computer games on soldiers to the same level as that of foreign troops. Therefore, the troops choose to build a "virtual battlefield" by computer games, which is basically in a state of "fighting independently". China National Defense Newspaper once published an article saying: Some comrades’ ideological understanding has not yet reached its due height, and even have a wrong understanding of the "virtual battlefield". For example, when some comrades mention military computer games, they think that it is useless to play more and practice less. When it comes to training, you need a real knife and a real gun.


  So "Red Alert" entered the military camp and caused a hot discussion among netizens on the Internet. Red Alert, produced by WESTWOOD Studio in the United States, is a real-time strategy game with the background of the world military confrontation pattern in the Cold War era. Netizens think that games like Red Alert are on the side of "free west" and demonize the former Soviet Union and its allies in Eastern Europe. At the same time, netizens believe that real-time strategy games like Red Alert can’t really improve soldiers’ combat skills.


  However, some people in our army have deeply realized the role of war computer games. China National Defense News reported that in recent years, with the development of our army’s information construction and the construction of local area network, some troops have put a variety of simulation "games" such as main battle tanks, fighter planes, infantry fighting vehicles and car driving into training practice, and the effect is very obvious. The report believes that it is necessary to actively develop military training game software with independent intellectual property rights of our army and adapted to the operational characteristics of our army. At ordinary times, we should be good at planning and organizing a variety of activities such as "online confrontation exercises" and "military game confrontation training", and let officers and men play different roles in various "virtual battlefields" in an organized, planned and purposeful way to adapt to the "battlefield" environment, so as to pave the way for launching live-fire drills for real soldiers, improving their combat capability under the conditions of informationization, and laying a good front stand.



  The gap between China and foreign countries in war games


  Compared with the PLA’s new contact with military games, foreign troops are quite "sophisticated" in this respect, and they even "tailor-made" computer game products for the troops. According to Jane’s Defense Weekly, computer games such as "US Army" and "Delta Force" have been designated as training materials by military academies in the United States and Britain. In 2005, the United States Military Academy at West Point alone ordered 1,200 sets of Delta Force game software for daily education and training.


  In order to attract young Americans to apply for the West Point Military Academy, West Point Military Academy has spent a huge sum of money to develop a new anti-terrorism computer game named "US Army". Since February 2006, the US Army and West Point Military Academy have jointly provided this computer game to high school students and young people for free. Through games, players can experience simulated military institutions and basic training. The shooting part of the game is very real, and the heavy breathing rhythm of the soldiers matches the shaking displayed on the computer screen.


  In addition, the National Defense Science and Technology Bureau of Singapore cooperated with the University of Southern California in the United States to develop a computer game called "Omni-directional Commander" for the Singapore Armed Forces, with the aim of training soldiers in decision-making, resource management and flexible thinking while playing entertainment games.


  "Tackling key problems" is the basic way to play computer games in the US military. The military version of game software usually sets levels with different difficulty conditions in the order from easy to difficult. For example, the latest upgraded version of the US military’s "Full Spectrum Warrior" game software has 12 levels. The more complicated the battlefield environment, the more fierce the enemy’s firepower, the more difficult it is to tackle the problem, and the player may "die" at any time. Therefore, players must learn to preserve their combat effectiveness and minimize casualties.


  According to American statistics, the probability of survival of pilots who have never participated in actual combat is only 60% at the first mission, and the probability of survival can be increased to 90% after computer simulation confrontation training.


  War games that foreign troops often "play"


  Us military: using games to trigger the training revolution


  According to American media reports, so far, Hollywood computer gamers have created more than 500 highly simulated combat games. At the same time, the US military itself has continuously developed various military training games, including both stand-alone games for training individual personnel and online games for class to division scale. Game software such as US Army, Full Spectrum Warrior and Delta Force has become a new platform for the US military to train transformational talents, and is widely used in transformational training programs such as the Army’s Land Warrior, the Navy’s Outstanding Task Force and the Air Force’s Aerospace Leader.


  According to Pentagon officials, before that, most of the US military training with computer games was to train soldiers to fight alone. With more and more gamers joining the army and the development of computer technology, the US military will fully popularize the use of computer games to train soldiers, and move from individual training to joint combat training, thus triggering a training revolution.


  Russian army: "virtual battlefield" is extremely cruel


  According to Russian media reports, the overall development of Russia’s software industry is not backward, and the computer game training of Russian troops is also widely used, but the details are rarely disclosed to the outside world. In the computer game confrontation of the Russian army, in addition to the "man-machine confrontation" mode, there is also a "man-man confrontation" mode.


  The "virtual battlefield" of Russian ace troops is extremely cruel, and the training games used try their best to improve the difficulty of confrontation. The virtual battlefield game used by Russia’s 76th Airborne Division is that the detachment was thrown thousands of miles away from the big army by the Il -76 transport plane, and was stormed by the imaginary enemy when its foothold was unstable. The enemy even attacked with tear gas, and the soldiers had to fight with the enemy soldiers in tears … Although the game is not a war, the war is not a game, but the game is promoting the change of the war. (Dongfang. com/Qian Chengcan)



























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Editor: Li Xiuwei

Green answer sheet | Fight the battle of clear water! Construct a new pattern of cross-basin and cross-regional coordinated water control, and continuously improve the national water ecology.

  CCTV News:In addition to the blue sky defense war, as another key battle of pollution prevention and control, the clear water defense war also started one after another during the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, and the national water environment continued to improve by continuing to carry out water pollution prevention and control in key river basins, starting the protection of drinking water sources, and controlling urban black and odorous water bodies.

  This "Yichang Baojie No.11" arrived at the stern of the "Hongrui No.2" transshipment ship according to the agreed time, and was ready to start receiving domestic sewage after connecting the water pipe.

  Yichang has 232 kilometers of the Yangtze River, accounting for nearly one tenth of the main channel of the Yangtze River. Every year, 60,000 sub-ships are waiting for parking or transshipment here, which is a high gathering place for receiving, transshipment and disposal of ship pollutants. Through this cooperative treatment system of ship pollutants, the whole process of ship pollutants handover, transshipment and disposal can be completed and monitored in real time. Ten specialized docks for ship pollutants can handle all ship wastes.

  The application of high-tech means has also helped China’s water ecological management to enter a new stage. In Baiyangdian, xiong’an new area, Hebei Province, a water laboratory with "integration of heaven and earth" ecological monitoring is conducting daily monitoring on the water quality in Baiyangdian District. UAV monitoring in the air, unmanned ship sampling in the water, and the sampling data are transmitted back to the first time through 5G signals. The water quality monitoring equipment on board can quickly analyze 14 water quality indexes such as chemical oxygen demand, ammonia nitrogen, total phosphorus and algae density.

  The latest release of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment shows that the water quality of key river basins such as the Yangtze River and the Yellow River in China is stable at present. In terms of pollution control, China is building a new pattern of cross-basin and cross-regional collaborative water control. The ecological environment management in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has established a coordinated protection system and mechanism. Recently, three provinces and one city in the Yangtze River Delta jointly launched nine major projects in the field of comprehensive management of Taihu Lake basin and water environment.

CITIC Securities: The market underestimated the impact of the Japanese nuclear pollution incident on the competition pattern of China’s beauty industry, and suggested paying attention to the replaceme

We believe that the market underestimated the impact of the Japanese nuclear pollution incident on the competition pattern of China’s beauty industry. (1) According to the sea discharge plan announced by the Japanese government, the nuclear polluted water will be discharged into the sea for at least 30 years, with strong persistence and repetitiveness. Every time the sea discharge is started every year, it may cause a new round of concern, and events such as pollution caused by sea discharge may cause staged public opinion. ② This incident has caused a great impact on Japanese cosmetics in brand, product, channel and marketing dimensions. Based on the leading operation precision of new domestic channels and continuous breakthrough in product strength, we believe that Chinese cosmetics is expected to make up for its position quickly and continue to expand its market share in the medium and long term. (3) Japanese cosmetics account for a relatively high proportion in sunscreen, cleansing and suits, and the price band is positioned at the high end, so the above areas have great substitution opportunities. Pay attention to the sunscreen track with large space for daily makeup replacement and strong growth potential, and the skin care track with large space for daily makeup replacement; Pay attention to the upstream raw material industry chain with continuous technological breakthrough and upgrading.

The discharge of nuclear pollution water into the sea has caused negative public opinion, and Japanese cosmetics products, channels and brands are under pressure in many aspects.

The Japanese government launched the Fukushima nuclear pollution water discharge plan from August 24, 2023, which will last for at least 30 years. The related events have caused a lot of negative public opinions. The Japanese makeup lies in: 1) brand dimension: consumer aversion caused by national sentiment+brand quality reputation double blow; 2) Product dimension: safety causes consumers’ concerns; 3) Channels and marketing: KOL cooperation in new channels is negatively affected. Under the pressure of many sides, the sales of Japanese cosmetics fell after the incident of discharging the sea.

It is estimated that there will be more than 7 billion alternative spaces, and there will be great opportunities in the middle and high-end positioning, sun protection and skin care products.

It is estimated that Japanese cosmetics will give over 7 billion market share in two years:Based on the assumption that the negative impact of the nuclear pollution incident continues, with reference to the sharp drop of 21% in Japanese cosmetics imports from January to November 2023 and the general drop of 15% in Japanese Top brand sales in 2023, we estimate that the market size of Japanese brands will drop by about 15% in 2023, giving up about 5.2 billion yuan. In terms of the Japanese market scale in 2024, we made three scenarios based on the import data, the sales data of Japanese brands after the cooperation of Daren, and Shiseido’s statement at the 3Q23 performance meeting. It is estimated that the total market space of Japanese cosmetics in 2023~24E will be 5.8-10.5 billion yuan, and the neutral hypothesis is expected to be about 7.5 billion yuan.

There are great opportunities for mid-to high-end positioning, sun protection and skin care products:Referring to the main Japanese brands covering the middle and high price bands, and according to Euromonitor data, the sales scale of high-end Japanese brands is about 24.2 billion yuan, accounting for 70%. We judge that the market share given by Japanese brands is relatively high-end, and the brands in the upgraded price band have hope to undertake it. With reference to the market scale of Japanese cosmetics, 64% is for skin care, 11% is for make-up and 10% is for sun protection, which respectively account for 9%/7%/23% of the market scale of skin care, make-up and sun protection in China. Considering that the makeup category mostly adopts OEM mode, the impact is relatively light, we think that sun protection and skin care track are more likely to be replaced. Further subdividing the skin care market, we find that Japanese brands account for the sub-category of cleansing and facial care suits.

National makeup opportunities: the sun protection track has a high growth and superimposed daily makeup replacement opportunities, and the skin care track has a selection of cleansing and suit segmentation.

1) High growth of sunscreen track+replacement of daily makeup, and the national makeup leader will benefit first under the management of special certificate.According to Euromonitor, the sunscreen track is a traditional advantage category of Japanese makeup, with a Japanese market share of 24%; In the first big promotion after the nuclear waste water incident, the market share of Japanese sunscreen amoy declined by 10%, and that of Tik Tok declined by 4%. The penetration rate of sunscreen cosmetics in China is low. According to NMPA standard, the penetration rate of women who normally use sunscreen products in the peak season of sunscreen is only about 16%. In the field of children’s sun protection in the cultivation period, a series of sun protection products with sales exceeding 400 million yuan have also appeared, and there is sufficient room for development. In addition, because sunscreen products are under special license management, the registration period needs 9-15 months, and we judge that the national makeup faucet that lays out the sunscreen track in advance is expected to benefit first.

2) The skin care track is a must, paying attention to the cleansing and suit subdivision with large replacement space.According to the data of the blast furnace, Japanese brands account for 51% of the Top10 cleansers and 23% of the facial care packages, and there are great potential replacement opportunities. Among them, the domestic cleansing positioning is cost-effective, the product strength is equal to Kerun, and the new channel operation is significantly ahead of Japan, which is expected to replace the mid-range Japanese cleansing market. The segmentation of facial care suits is dominated by foreign brands, positioning the overall high-end, and high-end products and high-end brands of national cosmetics are expected to be partially undertaken; At the same time, the leading domestic products in the expansion stage of large single products form a set of "stocking goods" with star single products, which greatly increases the unit price of customers and also has certain development opportunities.

The attention of Japanese raw materials has increased, catalyzing the further upgrading of the national cosmetics industry chain.

Japanese raw material manufacturers have good overall color, smell and quality, mainly core skeleton raw materials and monomer active ingredients, and are leading the world in some segments; Local raw material manufacturers cover more comprehensively and achieve breakthroughs in Japanese in individual segments. With the increasing attention paid to cosmetics raw materials after the nuclear water pollution incident, the upstream industrial chains such as R&D and raw materials are enriched in China, and the cosmetics supply chain in China is gradually recognized internationally. The incident will further promote the perfection and upgrading of the national cosmetics industrial chain.

Risk factors:

There is a high degree of uncertainty about the impact and duration of the nuclear pollution water discharge event; Skin care products are typical optional consumer goods, if residents’ consumption willingness and confidence are weak or have a negative impact on companies in the industry; If the regulatory policy changes beyond expectations, it may lead to a corresponding slowdown in the growth rate of industries and enterprises; The risk that the product strength and brand strength of local brands are not improved as expected; The risk of concentrated sales of e-commerce platform; The risk of changes in marketing channels; Risks of technology research and development.

Investment strategy: pay attention to the replacement opportunities of Japanese makeup in combination with the main line of growth.

We believe that the market underestimated the impact of the Japanese nuclear pollution incident on the competition pattern of China’s beauty industry. (1) According to the sea discharge plan announced by the Japanese government, the nuclear polluted water will be discharged into the sea for at least 30 years, with strong persistence and repetitiveness. Every time the sea discharge is started every year, it may cause a new round of concern, and events such as pollution caused by sea discharge may cause staged public opinion. ② The incident caused a great impact on the brand, products, channels and marketing dimensions of Japanese cosmetics. Based on the leading operation precision of new domestic channels and the continuous breakthrough of product strength, we believe that Chinese cosmetics is expected to make up for its position quickly and continue to expand its market share in the medium and long term. (3) Japanese cosmetics account for a relatively high proportion in sunscreen, cleansing and suits, and the price band is positioned at the high end, so the above areas have great substitution opportunities. Pay attention to the sunscreen track with large space for daily makeup replacement and strong growth potential, and the skin care track with large space for daily makeup replacement; Pay attention to the existence of upstream raw material industry chain that constantly breaks through and upgrades.