Editor’s note:
In 2018, China’s economy will hit the water again.
With the release of major economic data in the first half of the year, the market’s attention to the current economic situation continues to heat up. How to grasp the current macroeconomic trend? What changes do the latest data with ups and downs represent? What impact does Sino-US economic and trade friction have on economic trends? Can the main goals of economic development be achieved as scheduled this year? Starting from today, the overseas edition of People’s Daily’s "Rui Caijing" column launched a series of reports on "Mid-year Economic Observation" to analyze the economic situation and respond to economic hotspots.
In 2018, the semi-annual economic report of China was released. Mao Shengyong, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, introduced at the press conference on the national economic operation in the first half of the year held by the State Council Office on July 16 that the GDP growth rate in the first half of the year was 6.8%, the economic operation continued to develop steadily, and the economy was moving towards high-quality development. Analysts pointed out that under the background of increasing uncertainty in the external environment and solid progress in domestic structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading, China’s economy has handed over a bright interim "report card", which fully shows that China’s economy has strong resilience in the process of coping with shocks and challenges, and also adds confidence and confidence for China’s economy to face the complicated and severe domestic and international environment in the next stage.
Steady growth, stable employment and stable prices.
"In the first half of the year, China’s economy continued its overall stable and stable development trend." Mao Shengyong introduced.
How to understand "stability"?
Mao Shengyong pointed out that from the perspective of growth rate, the GDP growth rate in the first half of the year was 6.8%, and it operated stably in the middle and high speed range of 6.7% to 6.9% for 12 consecutive quarters; From the perspective of employment, the national urban survey unemployment rate has been below 5% for three consecutive months; From the price point of view, consumer price CPI rose by 2% in the first half of the year, showing a moderate upward trend.
How to understand "good"?
The structure is more reasonable — — According to reports, in the first half of the year, the added value of the tertiary industry accounted for 54.3% of GDP, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the same period of last year; The contribution of service industry to economic growth was 60.5%, 1.4 percentage points higher than the same period of last year. In terms of demand, the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth reached 78.5% in the first half of the year, an increase of 14.2 percentage points over the same period of last year.
Innovation is stronger — — "Since this year ‘ Streamline administration, delegate power, strengthen regulation and improve services ’ Reform continues to deepen, and entrepreneurial innovation continues to develop, ‘ Shuangchuang ’ The upgraded version is constantly being built. " Mao Shengyong said that in the first half of the year, there were 18,100 newly registered market entities per day, representing the rapid growth of related industries and products with technological progress, transformation and upgrading and high technology content, and the accelerated growth of service consumption.
Better quality — — In the first half of the year, the proportion of clean energy consumption in the whole energy consumption increased by 1.5 percentage points over the same period of the previous year; Energy consumption per unit of GDP decreased by 3.2% year-on-year. The per capita disposable income of urban and rural residents nationwide actually increased by 6.6%, which was the same as that in the first quarter; General public budget revenue exceeded 10 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.6%.
How does the trade war affect us?
Zhang Liqun, a researcher in the Macroeconomic Research Department of the State Council Development Research Center, analyzed this reporter’s analysis. The good economic performance of China in the first half of the year fully shows that China’s economy has strong resilience in the process of coping with shocks and challenges. With China vigorously promoting high-quality development, intensifying reform and opening up, innovating and improving macro-control, the resilience of development will be further enhanced, which will add confidence and confidence to China’s economy in the face of complex and severe domestic and international environment.
On July 16, when asked by the media about the impact of Sino-US trade friction on economy and prices, Mao Shengyong said, "The main indicators of China’s economic operation in the first half of this year were generally stable. If there is any impact from Sino-US trade friction, I think if there is, it is relatively limited. In the second half of the year, we need to further observe the impact of Sino-US trade friction. But on the whole, the Sino-US trade friction unilaterally provoked by the United States will have an impact on the economies of China and the United States, and because the world economy is generally deeply integrated, the industrial chain is in a global layout, and many related countries will also be affected. Therefore, it will also affect the recovery of the global economy and the sustained growth of world trade. "
As for the impact of Sino-US trade friction on prices, Mao Shengyong said that from the current situation, the price operation is still relatively stable. Mainly the price of imported soybeans may rise to some extent, which will bring some changes in the prices of bean products and related products. Generally speaking, first, the weight of soybeans and bean-related products in CPI is relatively small. Secondly, the downstream products of beans, mainly soybean meal feed, may push up the price of pork or eggs, and beans will affect edible oil. However, from the first half of this year, the prices of pork and edible oil in China are still at a relatively low level. The price of pork decreased by 12.5% year-on-year, and the price of edible oil decreased by 1%. Even if the price rises a little, the impact on the whole CPI is very limited. Moreover, from the trend in the second half of the year, consumer prices are expected to continue the trend of moderate increase.
The steady and positive trend will not change.
"Overall, in the first half of the year, the fundamentals of China’s stable economy were consolidated, and the short-term downward pressure did not cause obvious troubles to China’s economy. In the second half of the year, there are still many variables in the external environment, and the internal economic development is still unbalanced and unstable. However, considering the solid foundation of China’s steady economic growth, the continuous efforts of a series of regulatory measures, the in-depth promotion of supply-side structural reforms and the high growth in the medium and long term, China’s stable and positive economic development trend will continue, and a more beautiful answer sheet should be handed over throughout the year. " Zhang Liqun said.
Mao Shengyong said that from the main data in the first half of this year, in the pattern of economic growth, domestic demand is the decisive force, and consumption in domestic demand is the pillar. From the second half of the year, consumption itself has the basis and conditions for rigid growth, residents’ income has maintained rapid growth, the pace of upgrading the consumption structure has accelerated, and increasing imports has promoted the activity and supply of market sales, so consumption still has the conditions to continue the steady and rapid growth trend.
From the perspective of investment, the Bureau of Statistics introduced that first, the growth rate of manufacturing investment has accelerated for three consecutive months, and this momentum is expected to continue in the second half of the year; Second, real estate investment increased by 9.7% in the first half of the year, and leading indicators show that real estate investment is still expected to maintain rapid growth in the second half of the year; Third, infrastructure investment declined in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, with the completion of project cleaning, compliance projects accelerated, and infrastructure investment is expected to remain basically stable in the second half of the year. So investment in the second half of the year should be a basically stable trend.
"To say that domestic demand is the decisive factor does not mean that external demand is not important, but external demand is still a very important variable. In the first half of this year, foreign trade generally continued a good development trend. Foreign trade does face some challenges in the second half of the year, but there are also many favorable factors, and overall it is expected to maintain steady and rapid growth. " Mao Shengyong said that considering several factors, the stable and positive economic situation in the second half of the year will not change.