China xiaokang. com exclusive feature
Text | "Xiaokang" China Xiaokang.com reporter Mai Yuhua
"Living and living in peace and contentment" has always been a great concern of China people. Recently, the national property market as a whole has shown a trend of falling volume and price. Facing the new situation, the real estate market optimization and adjustment policies are frequent from the central government to the local government to consolidate the sustainable development of the property market.
We should adjust and optimize the real estate policy in a timely manner; We will implement policies and measures such as reducing the down payment ratio and loan interest rate for the purchase of the first home, reducing taxes and fees for the purchase of improved housing, and "recognizing the house without repaying the loan" for personal housing loans; Precise implementation of differentiated housing credit policies due to city policies … Recently, the relevant departments of the central government frequently optimize and adjust the real estate market.
The central government set the tone, and local governments responded. Many cities in the first, second and third tiers loosened restrictive housing purchase policies and continuously optimized real estate control policies. Among them, Beijing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Shanghai and other first-tier cities have voiced their voices, saying that they will support residents’ rigid and improved housing needs in light of their own real estate conditions. Second-and third-tier cities have also introduced policies: more than 10 cities such as Changsha, Qingdao and Hefei have relaxed their loan restrictions; Changzhou, Wuxi and other cities relaxed the price limit; Zhengzhou, Xiamen, Qingdao and other cities have relaxed restrictions on sales …
"Living and living in peace and contentment" has always been a part of China people’s concern. The change of the real estate market is the embodiment of the economic and social development on the macro level, and it also affects the value of the just-needed residence of everyone in China on the micro level. Therefore, under the new adjustment cycle, both the central and local governments have actively and continuously introduced various new policies to loosen the property market in order to develop. What impact will these new policies have on the real estate market? What challenges and opportunities do housing enterprises and individuals face?
The national property market as a whole shows a trend of falling volume and price.
Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released "Basic Situation of National Real Estate Market from January to July 2023" and "Changes in Sales Price of Commercial Housing in 70 Large and Medium-sized Cities in July 2023". Judging from the completion of real estate development investment, from January to July 2023, the national real estate development investment was 6,771.7 billion yuan, down 8.5% year-on-year; Among them, residential investment was 5,148.5 billion yuan, down 7.6%. It can be seen that the investment in real estate development generally shows a downward trend.
Judging from the sales and sale of commercial housing, from January to July 2023, the sales area of commercial housing was 665.63 million square meters, down 6.5% year-on-year, of which the sales area of residential housing decreased by 4.3%. The sales of commercial housing was 7,045 billion yuan, down by 1.5%, of which residential sales increased by 0.7%. Except for the slight increase in residential sales year-on-year, the rest of the data showed a downward trend. Geographically, the increase in residential sales is mainly due to the 3% year-on-year increase in commercial housing sales in the eastern region including Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Guangdong and Hainan. However, residential sales in central, western and northeastern regions all decreased year-on-year. Among them, the sales of commercial housing in the central region decreased by 9.5% year-on-year.
Judging from the changes in the sales price of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the sales price of commercial housing fluctuated slightly in July 2023. Sheng Guoqing, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, explained that the sales price of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities has increased, and the number of cities has decreased. The sales price of commercial housing in each city has remained flat or decreased, and it has increased and decreased year-on-year.
The data shows that in July 2023, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, the sales prices of newly-built commercial housing and second-hand housing increased by 20 and 6 respectively, which was 11 and 1 less than that in June 2023.
"The sales prices of commercial residential buildings in cities in various lines decreased slightly from the previous month. From the perspective of new commercial housing, in July, the sales price of new commercial housing in first-tier cities was flat for two consecutive months, with Beijing and Shanghai rising by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively, and Guangzhou and Shenzhen dropping by 0.2% and 0.6% respectively. The sales price of new commercial housing in second-tier cities changed from flat last month to a decrease of 0.2%; The sales price of new commercial housing in third-tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, and the decline rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that of last month. From the perspective of second-hand housing, in July, the sales price of second-hand housing in first-tier cities decreased by 0.8% month-on-month, and the decline was 0.1 percentage points higher than that of the previous month; The sales price of second-hand residential buildings in second-tier cities decreased by 0.5% month-on-month, and the decline rate was 0.1 percentage points higher than that of last month; The sales price of second-hand residential buildings in third-tier cities decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, the same as last month. " Sheng Guoqing said.
The sales prices of commercial housing in cities of all lines have increased and decreased year-on-year. In July 2023, among 70 large and medium-sized cities, the sales prices of newly-built commercial housing and second-hand housing increased year-on-year, with 26 and 5 cities respectively, one less than that in June 2023.
According to the interpretation of the National Day, in July 2023, the sales price of new commercial housing in first-and second-tier cities increased by 1.0% and 0.2% respectively year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; The sales price of new commercial housing in third-tier cities decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, and the decline rate was 0.1 percentage point higher than that of last month. In July 2023, the sales prices of second-hand houses in first-,second-and third-tier cities decreased by 1.4%, 2.7% and 3.5% year-on-year, respectively, and the decline rates increased by 1.0, 0.3 and 0.1 percentage points compared with the previous month.
"In my opinion, there are several main reasons for the recent decline in real estate prices." Feng Jianlin, chief economist of Beijing Fushengde Information Consulting Co., Ltd. believes that in the medium and long term, the real estate industry has entered a downward channel, and the relationship between supply and demand and price expectations have changed. Everyone buys up and does not buy down. In the medium term, the economy is still recovering, and the employment and income expectations of residents are weak. In the short term, some large real estate enterprises have financial crisis, which makes all parties have doubts about whether they can get the house or not.
"From a policy perspective, everyone expects the policy to be adjusted, and the mortgage down payment and interest rate may be lowered. These policies are slowly coming out, and some people may be waiting. The property market continues to be depressed and the downward pressure is increasing, which has a wide and far-reaching impact. For the country, the overall economic situation has been dragged down, affecting taxation and land transfer, and affecting the construction industry and employment. For developers, the pressure of capital turnover is great, and the operation is more difficult, so it is necessary to promote the payment as much as possible. For an individual, if he is buying a new house, he may choose to wait and see and wait for the house price to go down before buying. For second-hand housing transactions, both buyers and sellers may have price reduction expectations. " Feng Jianlin said.
In the future, China will adjust and optimize the real estate policy in a timely manner, and make good use of the relevant policy toolbox to better meet the rigid and improved housing needs of residents and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Mai yuhua/photo
The central government issued effective policies in time to prevent risks.
There is an objective relationship between the stable and healthy development of the real estate market and the economic growth of China. Therefore, in the past three years, the real estate industry has continuously implemented the central government’s prevention and resolution of risks in key areas, and at the same time, all localities have effectively responded to the downward pressure on the real estate industry due to urban policies.
On July 24th, the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee held a meeting. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas, adapt to the new situation in which the relationship between supply and demand in China’s real estate market has undergone major changes, adjust and optimize real estate policies in a timely manner, and make good use of the policy toolbox because of the city’s policy to better meet the rigid and improved housing needs of residents and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. The meeting proposed for the first time to adjust and optimize the real estate policy in a timely manner.
At the end of July, Ni Hong, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said that he strongly supported the demand for rigid and improved housing, and further implemented policies and measures such as reducing the down payment ratio and loan interest rate for the first home purchase, reducing taxes and fees for the purchase of improved housing, and "recognizing housing without repaying loans" for personal housing loans; Continue to do a good job in ensuring the delivery of buildings, speed up the delivery of project construction, and effectively protect the legitimate rights and interests of the people. This is not only the implementation of "timely adjustment and optimization of real estate policy", but also the key guiding significance for local policy adjustment. On July 26, the State Administration of Taxation issued guidelines on relevant preferential tax policies in recent years, involving deed tax and value-added tax on individual house purchases.
On August 1st, the People’s Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange stated that they should accurately implement differentiated housing credit policies due to the city’s policy and continue to guide the downward trend of individual housing loan interest rates and down payment ratio. Guide commercial banks to adjust the interest rate of existing individual housing loans in an orderly manner according to law. On August 3rd, Pan Gongsheng, Party Secretary and President of China People’s Bank, presided over a symposium on financial support for the development of private enterprises. Pan Gongsheng demanded that differentiated housing credit policies should be accurately implemented to meet the reasonable financing needs of private real estate enterprises and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate industry.
Chen Jia, an independent international strategy researcher, believes that the central government is far-sighted and timely puts forward a scientific judgment of "adapting to the new situation in which the supply and demand relationship in China’s real estate market has undergone major changes". Under the guidance of this judgment, in the future, China will adjust and optimize the real estate policy in a timely manner, and make good use of the relevant policy toolbox to better meet the rigid and improved housing needs of residents and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
"From the perspective of specific grasping, there are currently three main directions. First, the construction and supply of affordable housing; Second, the reconstruction of villages in cities and the construction of public infrastructure for both peacetime and emergency use; The third is the revitalization of all kinds of idle real estate. " Chen Jia said.
He also believes that from the analysis of the latest real estate policy spirit of the central government and various parts, the central government has a clear and clear positioning for the economic growth pulling effect of the stable and healthy development of the real estate industry under the new era and new requirements. In particular, under the new situation, there is a clearer and clearer strategic direction on how to adjust and optimize the real estate regulation and control policies, innovate the policy toolbox according to local conditions, promote the real estate industry to speed up the risk clearing, improve the effective investment in real estate, and promote the consumption of related industrial chains such as home decoration.
Feng Jianlin said that it is very necessary to lower the mortgage interest rate and down payment. The effectiveness of the policy should still be expected. The main reason is that if the second home down payment and interest rate are lowered, it will help to release the demand for improvement. At present, two-thirds of China’s population are permanent residents in cities and towns, and there are a lot of improvement needs in these populations.
"The policy of lowering the second home loan interest rate and down payment should be introduced as soon as possible. At the same time, the strength of this policy should be greater. If we continue to hesitate and squeeze toothpaste, we may miss the opportunity, let the market continue to cool down, and let the industry and the whole economy bear greater pressure and risks. Timely adjust and optimize the real estate policy’. I personally understand that this’ timely’ is now. This’ adjustment and optimization’ requires a certain degree of strength. Only by timely introducing strong policies can we achieve the goal of preventing and resolving risks. " Feng Jianlin said.
Different cities boost market confidence because of city policies
From the central government to the local government, whether it is first-tier cities or second-and third-tier cities, the real estate market optimization and adjustment policies are frequent everywhere to consolidate the sustainable development of the property market. Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the National Economic Statistics Department, pointed out that recently, the first-tier cities in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have voiced their voices intensively, saying that they should support and better meet the demand for rigid and improved housing. Some second-and third-tier cities are also introducing new real estate control policies, and the adjustment and optimization of local real estate policies will help boost market confidence. With the economic recovery improving, residents’ income increasing, and the real estate market adjustment and optimization policy effective, residents’ housing consumption and housing enterprises’ willingness to invest are expected to gradually improve.
At present, all kinds of cities are planning to adjust their real estate policies. Among them, first-tier cities quickly voiced their voices after the "timely adjustment and optimization of real estate policies" was put forward. On the evening of July 29th, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development stated that it would adhere to the general tone of striving for progress while maintaining stability, combine with the actual situation of Beijing’s real estate market, and work closely with relevant departments to implement the work, vigorously support and better meet the rigid and improved housing needs of residents, and promote the stable and healthy development of Beijing’s real estate market.
On July 30th, Shenzhen Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau said that it would work with relevant municipal departments, central institutions stationed in Shenzhen and all districts to better meet the demand of residents for rigid and improved housing, solidly promote the work of guaranteeing the delivery of buildings, effectively maintain the order of the real estate market, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market in Shenzhen.
From January to July 2023, the national real estate development investment was 6,771.7 billion yuan, down 8.5% year-on-year; Among them, residential investment was 5,148.5 billion yuan, down 7.6%.
Also on July 30th, Guangzhou Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau also stated that it would adhere to the general tone of striving for stability, seek truth from facts and step up implementation, and launch relevant policies and measures as soon as possible in light of Guangzhou’s actual situation, vigorously support and better meet the demand for rigid and improved housing, and promote the stable and healthy development of Guangzhou’s real estate market.
On July 31, the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the Municipal Housing Management Bureau stated that they would adhere to the general tone of striving for stability, implement the new development concept completely, accurately and comprehensively, support the rigid and improved housing demand due to the city’s policy, do a good job in ensuring the delivery of buildings, people’s livelihood and stability, and promote the stable and healthy development of the Shanghai real estate market.
This is the first time since 2017 that four first-tier cities have made a centralized statement. Chen Jia believes that the policies of some core first-and second-tier cities are relatively strict, and there is still much room for policy adjustment. Feng Jianlin suggested that first-tier cities can also have more creative practices. For example, zoning policies allow districts to appropriately adjust policies such as purchase restrictions.
In addition to the North, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the provincial level and many cities such as Chongqing, Zhengzhou, Nanjing, Hefei, Shenyang and Xining have introduced policies related to real estate. At the provincial level, the Hunan Provincial Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued the Notice on Further Stabilizing the Real Estate Market in July 2023, and introduced 11 measures such as classified regulation of the property market and regional linkage regulation. Jiangsu allows all localities to take comprehensive measures such as house purchase subsidies, house ticket placement, house purchase group purchase, etc. to better meet the housing demand of residents.
The property market policies introduced by several cities have different characteristics. Hefei proposed to boldly and steadily promote the pilot project of "existing home sales" of commercial housing, and actively explore the pricing of commercial housing sales according to the interior area. Zhengzhou implements the policy of "recognizing houses but not loans"; For the purchase of improved housing, the original housing will be suspended from the sale restriction policy.
Many cities also encourage the purchase of houses in the form of housing subsidies. For example, Nanjing introduced a housing subsidy policy. Its policy is clear, encouraging the new six districts to continue to purchase new commercial housing within the specified period according to the actual situation of the regional market, and give a certain proportion of housing subsidies according to the contract price. Qixia District and Yuhuatai District will implement subsidies for the purchase of new commercial housing after evaluating the actual market situation within their respective jurisdictions, effectively reducing the burden of rigid and improved housing purchase. In addition, some third-and fourth-tier cities have also introduced housing subsidy policies. For example, Jinhua, Zhejiang, gives 0.8% ~ 1.2% subsidy to residents who buy houses from August to September this year, and Lanxi, Zhejiang gives 1% subsidy to residents who buy new houses from August to September this year.
Many places have also given policy support from the housing provident fund system, especially encouraging the withdrawal of provident fund as a down payment trend. On August 4, Hainan Provincial Housing Provident Fund Administration and Hainan Provincial Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a notice, allowing Hainan to withdraw housing provident fund to pay the down payment for the purchase of new commercial housing and affordable housing in the province. In addition, Chongqing, Qingdao, Shandong, Fuyang, Anhui, Meizhou, Guangdong and other places have clearly proposed to encourage the withdrawal of provident fund for down payment.
Regarding the policies at different levels and in different cities, Chen Jia believes that there are great regional differences in urban development, so in the future, all localities must make policies according to local conditions and cities. It is necessary to fully estimate the space and time for the adjustment of local policy toolboxes, and pay close attention to the specific market operation of each city. Judging from the time series data, the current real estate restrictive policies in the second, third and fourth tier cities are in the basic liberalization range.
"China’s real estate industry policy adjustment in the future can be considered from four directions. First, adjust and optimize regional policy price limits and stabilize price repair expectations; The second is to optimize the recognition of housing and loans, reduce the down payment, and release the just-needed; The third is to optimize the purchase restriction policy and accelerate destocking due to the city’s policy; The fourth is to open up a blocking point in the second-hand housing sales market and accelerate the capital turnover in the real estate market. " Chen Jia said.
From January to July 2023, the sales area of commercial housing was 665.63 million square meters, down 6.5% year-on-year. The sales of commercial housing reached 7,045 billion yuan, down by 1.5%.
The exposure of housing enterprises’ debt risks affects market expectations.
Recently, the news about Country Garden has been overwhelming. The reason is that Country Garden has two US dollar debt coupons due on August 7, totaling 22.5 million US dollars, but it failed to pay them on time. On August 10th, Country Garden issued a profit warning and insider information announcement. It is mentioned that the company’s management has made a profound reflection. Although it has predicted the current market adjustment cycle, it has underestimated the depth, intensity and persistence of the market downturn, failed to make a more powerful response as early as possible, failed to see that the supply and demand relationship in the real estate market has undergone major changes, and failed to understand the potential risks such as excessive investment ratio in third-and fourth-tier cities and lower-tier cities, insufficient speed of debt ratio drop, and failed to resolve them in time and effectively.
According to the financial report, by the end of 2022, Country Garden’s contracted sales in third-and fourth-tier cities still accounted for 60%; The land that has been signed or delisted has a building area of 201.5 million square meters, 79% of which are distributed outside Guangdong and are highly scattered all over the country. The profit warning and insider information announcement mentioned that the company’s net loss in the first half of 2023 will be between 45 billion yuan and 55 billion yuan.
Subsequently, on August 11th, Country Garden issued an apology letter. Yang Huiyan, chairman of the board of directors of the company, and Mo Bin, president of the company, said in a joint letter that although the company has gone all out to save itself, the overall market has not recovered, the absolute scale of the industry has declined, it will take time to restore confidence in the capital market, and the overall operating pressure of the company has increased, facing the biggest difficulty since its establishment.
Regarding the recent Country Garden real estate incident, Fu Linghui said that at present, the real estate market is generally in the adjustment stage, and some housing enterprises have encountered certain difficulties, especially the debt risks of some leading housing enterprises have been exposed, which has affected market expectations. However, we should see that these problems are phased. With the gradual function of the market adjustment mechanism and the adjustment and optimization of the real estate market policies, the risks of housing enterprises are expected to be gradually resolved.
Not only Country Garden, but also many real estate enterprises are experiencing "the darkest hour" in recent years. Evergrande, which was the first to have problems, issued a clarification announcement on the market news about "bankruptcy protection" on August 18th. The announcement said that it is currently promoting overseas debt restructuring as planned. "As the US dollar bonds of the Company are governed by the laws of new york, the Company applied to the US court for recognition of the overseas debt restructuring arrangements under the legal systems of Hong Kong and British Virgin Islands (BVI) in accordance with Chapter 15 of Title 11 of the US Code, which is part of the normal overseas restructuring procedure and does not involve bankruptcy application."
Buyers expect that the policy will be adjusted, and the mortgage down payment and interest rate may be lowered, so the wait-and-see mood is strong. The picture shows Hu Yan/photo of a real estate sales center in Qingyuan, Guangdong.
And Sunac is still saving itself. On August 18th, Sunac announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that it expected a net loss of 15 billion yuan to 16 billion yuan in the first half of the year, compared with 18.76 billion yuan in the same period last year. "The loss was mainly affected by the downturn of the real estate market, and the gross profit margin of the carried-over property projects was low during this period, and the expected net exchange loss was caused by foreign exchange fluctuations."
In order to solve the debt repayment problem, Sunac has been selling projects recently. On July 7th, Sunac sold 100% equity of Zhenhuafu Project Company at a price of 200 million yuan. The buyer was Ronglian Road and Bridge Company designated by Rong Feng Company to offset Sunac’s debt of 200 million yuan to Rong Feng Company. On August 10th, Sunac sold the Rongyao City Project in Fuzhou, which was jointly developed with Shoukai. On August 17th, Sunac announced that it would sell three projects, including Zhenhuafu Hotel, Wangjinsha Hotel and Hefei Xiuchang Hotel, with a total amount of about 1.23 billion yuan, in order to solve the debt repayment problem of Rong Feng Company.
For many housing enterprises facing the "dark moment", Feng Jianlin believes that on the whole, the entire real estate industry has entered the downward channel, and both private enterprises and state-owned enterprises will face pressure. At present, urbanization has obviously slowed down. Before the epidemic, the urbanization rate increased by 1.3-1.5 percentage points every year, but only by 0.5-0.8 percentage points in the past two years. The population of new cities has dropped by about half, so naturally there is no need to build so many new houses. Therefore, there is a serious overcapacity in the real estate development industry.
"Now, to go through a process of de-capacity, a considerable number of housing enterprises will eventually be eliminated. This process will continue for some time, and winter is still very long. Housing enterprises should prepare for the winter as soon as possible, quickly reduce leverage, be flexible in price policies, and do more marketing through various methods. " Feng Jianlin said.
Chen Jia believes that no matter how the property tax and other policies are optimized, China’s real estate industry must change the low-quality development model of "high debt, high leverage and high turnover" for many years.
"The recent transformation of the real estate industry from light assets to emerging service industries such as property management and business management is an active exploration of accelerating reform, upgrading risk control, digital transformation and business model transformation, and promoting the transformation of the real estate industry to a high-quality development model. In the future, with the continuous deepening of digital technology, financial technology and technological progress in the real estate industry chain in China, the comprehensive digital transformation of the real estate industry will continue to exert its strength. The foundation of destocking and risk reduction in China’s real estate industry is expected to be further consolidated, the central policy is expected to be effectively implemented, and the macro economy is expected to be further supported and pulled by the real estate industry. " Chen Jia said.
("Xiaokang" China Xiaokang. com exclusive feature)
This article was published in the mid-September 2023 issue of Xiaokang.
Author: Mai Wanhua